NKE:NYSENike, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-20 - not real-time
$46.03
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Nike’s stock is trading well below its 20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages, with the price hovering around $46 versus a 20‑day SMA of roughly $47.4, indicating a bearish technical backdrop. The RSI sits in the high‑30s, the MACD histogram has turned positive and the MACD line has crossed above its signal, offering a modest bullish hint, yet volume is on a downtrend and 30‑day volatility exceeds 55%, underscoring heightened price swings.
Fundamentally, revenue growth has stalled at near‑zero, margins are under pressure, and the payout ratio eclipses 100%, casting doubt on the sustainability of the 3.5% dividend. Debt‑to‑equity is elevated near 80%, and a DCF model places intrinsic value under $10, starkly lower than the current market price, suggesting the stock is overvalued despite a median analyst target of $57 and a consensus “Buy.”
Fundamentally, revenue growth has stalled at near‑zero, margins are under pressure, and the payout ratio eclipses 100%, casting doubt on the sustainability of the 3.5% dividend. Debt‑to‑equity is elevated near 80%, and a DCF model places intrinsic value under $10, starkly lower than the current market price, suggesting the stock is overvalued despite a median analyst target of $57 and a consensus “Buy.”
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Price below all major moving averages signals bearish momentum
- Decreasing volume and high short‑term volatility increase trade risk
- MACD bullish divergence is limited and may not offset downside pressure
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Modest EPS growth and strong brand equity provide upside to analyst targets
- Unsustainable dividend payout and high debt raise financial concerns
- HSBC downgrade to Hold reflects limited visibility in key regions
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Global brand strength and digital initiatives support long‑term relevance
- Exposure to China, EMEA and currency fluctuations adds geographic risk
- Current valuation gap versus DCF suggests limited upside without a turnaround
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth0.10%
Profit Margin4.84%
P/E Ratio30.3
ROE16.02%
ROA5.20%
Debt/Equity79.33
P/B Ratio4.8
Op. Cash Flow$1.7B
Free Cash Flow$1.3B
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI38.7
Support$42.09
Resistance$54.22
MA 20$47.43
MA 50$55.05
MA 200$65.48
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index86.59
Valuation
Fair Value$9.91
Target Price$62.37
Upside/Downside35.49%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.56%
Risk Assessment
Beta1.14
Volatility55.64%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskHigh
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.