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NKE:NYSENike, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-13 - not real-time

$44.93

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Nike (NKE) is trading at $44.93, well above its DCF‑derived fair value of roughly $9.7, indicating a significant overvaluation. The stock sits between a support level near $41.35 and resistance around $47.65, with a neutral trend, an RSI of about 52 and a bullish MACD histogram, suggesting limited upside in the near term. Volume is declining despite a still‑high average, and 30‑day volatility sits near 34%, reflecting a fairly restless price action. Fundamentally, revenue growth is flat (≈0%), margins are modest, and the dividend payout ratio exceeds 100%, raising concerns about dividend sustainability. The brand remains exceptionally strong – consumer surveys show over 95% brand affinity – but the market has punished the stock with a 33% YTD decline, and upcoming Q4 earnings could be a catalyst for further movement.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near technical support with limited upside
  • Upcoming earnings release may add volatility
  • High short‑term volatility and decreasing volume

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Brand strength and loyal consumer base
  • Flat revenue growth and high valuation multiples
  • Dividend payout ratio above 100% raises sustainability concerns

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Significant overvaluation relative to DCF fair value
  • Limited growth prospects in a cyclical consumer sector
  • Unsustainable dividend policy and high payout ratio

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth0.10%
Profit Margin4.84%
P/E Ratio29.6
ROE16.02%
ROA5.20%
Debt/Equity79.33
P/B Ratio4.7
Op. Cash Flow$1.7B
Free Cash Flow$1.3B

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI51.6
Support$41.35
Resistance$47.65
MA 20$44.37
MA 50$44.23
MA 200$59.40
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.86

Valuation

Fair Value$9.69
Target Price$59.58
Upside/Downside32.62%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield3.65%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.92
Volatility34.49%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.