NJR:NYSENewJersey Resources Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-17 - not real-time
$54.75
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
New Jersey Resources trades around $54.75, well above its DCF‑derived fair value of $30.5, yet analysts project a median target near $61, implying modest upside. The stock delivers a solid 3.48% dividend yield with a 55.6% payout ratio, supported by stable operating margins (~32%) and modest revenue growth (~2.9%). Recent earnings beat, an upgraded price target to $63, and a strategic push into clean‑energy projects underscore growth potential, while a negative beta (~‑0.25) and moderate 30‑day volatility (~19.6%) suggest limited market‑wide risk.
The balance of strong dividend sustainability, regulatory‑backed utility earnings, and emerging clean‑energy initiatives positions NJR as a blend‑oriented, income‑focused play, though current pricing appears stretched relative to intrinsic estimates, warranting a cautious stance pending further valuation convergence.
The balance of strong dividend sustainability, regulatory‑backed utility earnings, and emerging clean‑energy initiatives positions NJR as a blend‑oriented, income‑focused play, though current pricing appears stretched relative to intrinsic estimates, warranting a cautious stance pending further valuation convergence.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price near technical support (~$53) with bearish MACD histogram
- RSI in neutral range (~45) indicating limited upside momentum
- Stable trading volume reducing short‑term price volatility
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Analyst upgrade and raised price target to $63 reflecting earnings beat
- Growing clean‑energy venture pipeline and regulatory milestones
- Attractive dividend yield and payout ratio supporting cash‑flow confidence
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Regulated utility backbone providing predictable revenue streams
- Decarbonization strategy aligning with long‑term energy transition trends
- High leverage (debt‑to‑equity >140) may limit future capital flexibility
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth2.90%
Profit Margin15.67%
P/E Ratio16.2
ROE13.32%
ROA4.25%
Debt/Equity142.14
P/B Ratio2.1
Op. Cash Flow$641.6M
Free Cash Flow$-306034624
Industry P/E20.7
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI45.7
Support$52.96
Resistance$58.57
MA 20$55.52
MA 50$55.94
MA 200$50.55
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index92.13
Valuation
Fair Value$30.52
Target Price$60.14
Upside/Downside9.85%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.48%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.25
Volatility19.65%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.