NJR:NYSENewJersey Resources Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-19 - not real-time
$58.24
Latest Price
4/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
New Jersey Resources posted a strong earnings beat and solid revenue growth, supported by a bullish MACD and an RSI in the upper range, indicating robust short‑term momentum. The stock trades near its 52‑week high with a dividend yield above 3% and a payout ratio below 60%, reinforcing its appeal to income‑focused investors. However, the market price is well above the DCF‑derived fair value, and the company carries a high debt load with negative free cash flow, suggesting valuation pressure.
Given the blend of strong earnings momentum, attractive dividend profile, and valuation concerns, the stock is positioned as a defensive, income‑oriented play with limited upside potential unless the market corrects toward intrinsic value.
Given the blend of strong earnings momentum, attractive dividend profile, and valuation concerns, the stock is positioned as a defensive, income‑oriented play with limited upside potential unless the market corrects toward intrinsic value.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bullish MACD and strong earnings surprise
- RSI indicating continued momentum but not overbought
- Price near 52‑week high limiting immediate upside
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Sustained dividend yield with reasonable payout ratio
- Regulated utility revenue providing stability
- Analyst upgrades and price targets above current levels
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- High debt-to-equity ratio and negative free cash flow
- Potential regulatory changes affecting gas distribution
- Valuation gap between market price and intrinsic fair value
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth2.90%
Profit Margin15.67%
P/E Ratio17.3
ROE13.32%
ROA4.25%
Debt/Equity142.14
P/B Ratio2.2
Op. Cash Flow$641.6M
Free Cash Flow$-306034624
Industry P/E21.4
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI65.4
Support$54.44
Resistance$58.25
MA 20$56.31
MA 50$55.60
MA 200$49.76
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.04
Valuation
Fair Value$29.39
Target Price$59.86
Upside/Downside2.78%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield3.30%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.13
Volatility16.78%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.