NJR:NYSENewJersey Resources Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-20 - not real-time
$55.68
Latest Price
4/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
New Jersey Resources is trading at $55.68, just above its 20‑day SMA of $55.48 and 50‑day SMA of $54.47, indicating short‑term bullish momentum, yet the MACD histogram is negative and volume is trending down, suggesting caution as the price approaches the $57.70 resistance level.
Fundamentally, the company posted 24% revenue growth, a solid operating margin of 29.6%, and a dividend yield of 3.41% with a 57% payout ratio. The DCF‑derived fair value of $84.34 and a PE ratio of 17.2 versus the industry average of 22.6 point to a clear undervaluation, supporting a value‑oriented case.
Risk‑wise, NJR shows a near‑zero beta and 30‑day volatility of 16.8%, with low geographic concentration and a regulated utility framework, though a high debt‑to‑equity of 160 and negative free cash flow introduce leverage concerns.
Fundamentally, the company posted 24% revenue growth, a solid operating margin of 29.6%, and a dividend yield of 3.41% with a 57% payout ratio. The DCF‑derived fair value of $84.34 and a PE ratio of 17.2 versus the industry average of 22.6 point to a clear undervaluation, supporting a value‑oriented case.
Risk‑wise, NJR shows a near‑zero beta and 30‑day volatility of 16.8%, with low geographic concentration and a regulated utility framework, though a high debt‑to‑equity of 160 and negative free cash flow introduce leverage concerns.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price near resistance with bearish MACD histogram
- Decreasing volume trend
- Technical pull‑back risk despite bullish SMA alignment
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- DCF fair value suggests ~50% upside
- Strong dividend yield and payout ratio
- Robust revenue growth and operating margins
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Regulated utility model provides stable cash flows
- Expansion into clean‑energy ventures adds growth tailwinds
- Undervalued valuation metrics relative to peers
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth23.90%
Profit Margin15.18%
P/E Ratio17.2
ROE13.66%
ROA4.10%
Debt/Equity160.67
P/B Ratio2.3
Op. Cash Flow$502.0M
Free Cash Flow$-281286368
Industry P/E22.6
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI53.6
Support$52.17
Resistance$57.70
MA 20$55.48
MA 50$54.47
MA 200$48.61
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index86.63
Valuation
Fair Value$84.34
Target Price$55.00
Upside/Downside-1.22%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.41%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.11
Volatility16.75%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.