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NESTE:OMXHEXNeste Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-14 - not real-time

€27.71

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Neste Oyj trades at €27.71, sitting just below its 20‑day SMA of €28.54 but modestly above the 50‑day SMA of €27.55, indicating a short‑term price tension near a key support level of €26.58. Technical signals are mixed: the MACD histogram is negative and the MACD signal is flagged as bearish, while the RSI sits at 46.7, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Volume is on a decreasing trend and 30‑day volatility is high at 43.8%, reflecting a fairly choppy market environment. Fundamentally, the stock appears overvalued relative to its DCF fair value of €18.57 and its current PE of 29.8, which exceeds the industry average of 21.5, yet the forward PE of 13.7 signals significant earnings upside. The company delivers a modest dividend yield of 0.72% with a low payout ratio of 21.5%, supporting dividend sustainability. Analyst consensus is a "buy" with a median target of €30.5, implying a modest upside of roughly 6% from current levels.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near technical support and just below the 20‑day SMA
  • Bearish MACD histogram and decreasing volume
  • High short‑term volatility (≈44%)

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Revenue growth of ~3% and improving forward earnings (forward PE 13.7)
  • Low dividend payout ratio and strong cash generation
  • Analyst consensus “buy” with median target €30.5

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Strategic positioning in renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel markets
  • Robust cash flow and manageable debt levels
  • Long‑term ESG tailwinds offsetting sector and regulatory uncertainties

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth2.90%
Profit Margin3.74%
P/E Ratio29.8
ROE9.59%
ROA4.30%
Debt/Equity67.65
P/B Ratio2.8
Op. Cash Flow€2.4B
Free Cash Flow€1.2B
Industry P/E21.5

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI46.7
Support€26.58
Resistance€30.50
MA 20€28.54
MA 50€27.55
MA 200€21.48
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.86

Valuation

Fair Value€18.57
Target Price€29.37
Upside/Downside5.98%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.72%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.24
Volatility43.85%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.