NESTE:OMXHEXNeste Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-14 - not real-time
€27.71
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Neste Oyj trades at €27.71, sitting just below its 20‑day SMA of €28.54 but modestly above the 50‑day SMA of €27.55, indicating a short‑term price tension near a key support level of €26.58. Technical signals are mixed: the MACD histogram is negative and the MACD signal is flagged as bearish, while the RSI sits at 46.7, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Volume is on a decreasing trend and 30‑day volatility is high at 43.8%, reflecting a fairly choppy market environment. Fundamentally, the stock appears overvalued relative to its DCF fair value of €18.57 and its current PE of 29.8, which exceeds the industry average of 21.5, yet the forward PE of 13.7 signals significant earnings upside. The company delivers a modest dividend yield of 0.72% with a low payout ratio of 21.5%, supporting dividend sustainability. Analyst consensus is a "buy" with a median target of €30.5, implying a modest upside of roughly 6% from current levels.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price near technical support and just below the 20‑day SMA
- Bearish MACD histogram and decreasing volume
- High short‑term volatility (≈44%)
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Revenue growth of ~3% and improving forward earnings (forward PE 13.7)
- Low dividend payout ratio and strong cash generation
- Analyst consensus “buy” with median target €30.5
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Strategic positioning in renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel markets
- Robust cash flow and manageable debt levels
- Long‑term ESG tailwinds offsetting sector and regulatory uncertainties
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth2.90%
Profit Margin3.74%
P/E Ratio29.8
ROE9.59%
ROA4.30%
Debt/Equity67.65
P/B Ratio2.8
Op. Cash Flow€2.4B
Free Cash Flow€1.2B
Industry P/E21.5
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI46.7
Support€26.58
Resistance€30.50
MA 20€28.54
MA 50€27.55
MA 200€21.48
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.86
Valuation
Fair Value€18.57
Target Price€29.37
Upside/Downside5.98%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.72%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.24
Volatility43.85%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.