NCKL:IDXPT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-17 - not real-time
IDR 1,140.00
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
PT Trimegah Bangun Persada (NCKL) trades at IDR 1,140, well below its DCF fair‑value estimate of roughly IDR 1,016 and enjoys a 37% upside potential. The stock benefits from a low trailing PE of ~9×, solid operating margins (>29%), and a healthy dividend yield of 2.7% supported by a modest 24% payout ratio.
Recent news highlights a government‑mandated cut in Indonesia’s nickel production quota, which could tighten supply and buoy nickel prices, while the company has also secured a new geophysical survey partnership worth around IDR 1.9 bn, indicating ongoing exploration activity. These fundamentals, combined with a bullish SMA alignment (20‑day SMA above 50‑day SMA) and a relatively low RSI (~35), suggest the stock is oversold in a favorable technical context.
Recent news highlights a government‑mandated cut in Indonesia’s nickel production quota, which could tighten supply and buoy nickel prices, while the company has also secured a new geophysical survey partnership worth around IDR 1.9 bn, indicating ongoing exploration activity. These fundamentals, combined with a bullish SMA alignment (20‑day SMA above 50‑day SMA) and a relatively low RSI (~35), suggest the stock is oversold in a favorable technical context.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Price near support at IDR 1,120 with bullish SMA crossover
- RSI indicating oversold conditions
- Supply‑side catalyst from Indonesia’s nickel quota reduction
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Undervaluation relative to DCF and peers
- Strong operating margins and cash flow generation
- Continued exploration partnership expanding resource base
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Sustainable dividend yield with low payout ratio
- Exposure to commodity price cycles and regulatory changes
- Robust balance sheet despite high leverage, but debt‑to‑equity remains elevated
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth9.70%
Profit Margin27.55%
P/E Ratio9.0
ROE25.31%
ROA8.76%
Debt/Equity23.67
P/B Ratio2.0
Op. Cash FlowIDR7476.5B
Free Cash FlowIDR3390.0B
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI35.0
SupportIDR 1,120.00
ResistanceIDR 1,595.00
MA 20IDR 1,391.25
MA 50IDR 1,369.30
MA 200IDR 1,060.03
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index78.32
Valuation
Fair ValueIDR 1,016.44
Target PriceIDR 1,569.54
Upside/Downside37.68%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.70%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.52
Volatility72.44%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.