NBIS:NASDAQNebius Group N.V. Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-19 - not real-time
$157.14
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) is riding a wave of bullish technical momentum – the 14‑day RSI sits at 68, the MACD line is well above its signal, and price is trading near the 52‑week high with strong upside momentum. Volume is increasing and the 20‑day SMA (125.9) is well below the current price (157.1), reinforcing a short‑term bullish bias.
However, the fundamentals tell a starkly different story: a trailing P/E of 1,428 versus an industry average of 19, a DCF fair value of only $34.6, and a max drawdown of –45% highlight severe overvaluation. The stock’s beta of 3.08 and 30‑day volatility of over 100% indicate extreme price swings, while the lack of dividend and a negative free cash flow underscore financial fragility. Despite an “Extreme Greed” sentiment index (90.21) and a buy rating from analysts, the combination of inflated valuation, high risk metrics, and substantial debt suggests caution.
However, the fundamentals tell a starkly different story: a trailing P/E of 1,428 versus an industry average of 19, a DCF fair value of only $34.6, and a max drawdown of –45% highlight severe overvaluation. The stock’s beta of 3.08 and 30‑day volatility of over 100% indicate extreme price swings, while the lack of dividend and a negative free cash flow underscore financial fragility. Despite an “Extreme Greed” sentiment index (90.21) and a buy rating from analysts, the combination of inflated valuation, high risk metrics, and substantial debt suggests caution.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Current price near resistance at $168.7
- Extreme overvaluation (P/E > 1,400)
- High short‑term volatility and beta
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Strategic Nvidia partnership supporting AI infrastructure growth
- Persistently high valuation relative to DCF fair value
- Improving operating cash flow but negative free cash flow
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Long‑run secular demand for AI compute and edge infrastructure
- Diversified geographic footprint reducing single‑region exposure
- Potential for valuation re‑rating as revenue growth materializes
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth500.80%
Profit Margin19.20%
P/E Ratio1428.5
ROE0.74%
ROA-4.66%
Debt/Equity105.96
P/B Ratio8.6
Op. Cash Flow$384.8M
Free Cash Flow$-3610350080
Industry P/E19.3
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI68.1
Support$89.65
Resistance$168.71
MA 20$125.87
MA 50$110.39
MA 200$93.84
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.21
Valuation
Fair Value$34.59
Target Price$170.29
Upside/Downside8.37%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta3.08
Volatility103.83%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.