NBHC:NYSENational Bank Holdings Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-19 - not real-time
$42.38
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
National Bank Holdings (NBHC) is trading at $42.38, just above the DCF‑derived fair value of $41.52, yet the model still projects an ~8.5% upside. Valuation metrics reinforce a value case: the price‑to‑earnings ratio of 14.9 sits below the industry average of 17.7, the price‑to‑book is modest at 1.16, and a 3.0% dividend yield with a 42% payout ratio suggests sustainable income.
Technical indicators are supportive: the MACD is bullish (line above signal, positive histogram), the RSI at 66.8 signals strong momentum without being overbought, and the price is positioned near the upper half of its $37.43‑$43.09 range. Volume trends are tapering, but liquidity remains adequate for the market cap. The imminent Q1 2026 earnings release adds a near‑term catalyst that could clarify the trajectory.
Technical indicators are supportive: the MACD is bullish (line above signal, positive histogram), the RSI at 66.8 signals strong momentum without being overbought, and the price is positioned near the upper half of its $37.43‑$43.09 range. Volume trends are tapering, but liquidity remains adequate for the market cap. The imminent Q1 2026 earnings release adds a near‑term catalyst that could clarify the trajectory.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Bullish MACD and strong momentum (RSI 66.8)
- Attractive dividend yield (3.0%) with sustainable payout
- Upcoming Q1 earnings call as a catalyst
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Valuation advantage vs industry peers (PE 14.9 vs 17.7)
- Consistent profitability and solid ROE (~8%)
- DCF upside potential (~8.5%)
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- Stable dividend policy and low payout ratio
- Low beta (~0.94) indicating defensive profile
- Fundamental resilience despite modest revenue decline
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-7.70%
Profit Margin27.51%
P/E Ratio14.9
ROE8.15%
ROA1.11%
P/B Ratio1.2
Op. Cash Flow$162.4M
Industry P/E17.7
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI66.8
Support$37.43
Resistance$43.09
MA 20$40.00
MA 50$40.26
MA 200$38.96
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.21
Valuation
Fair Value$41.52
Target Price$46.00
Upside/Downside8.54%
GradeFair
TypeValue
Dividend Yield3.02%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.94
Volatility19.54%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.