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NAVI:NASDAQNavient Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-12 - not real-time

$7.95

Latest Price

8/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

Navient’s stock is trading at $7.95, comfortably below its 20‑day (8.12), 50‑day (8.43) and 200‑day (10.74) simple moving averages, signaling a sustained bearish bias. The MACD line sits beneath its signal line and the histogram is negative, while the RSI at 44.7 suggests momentum is neither overbought nor oversold, reinforcing the downtrend. Price action is hovering near the identified support of $7.33 with resistance around $8.74, and volume is trending upward, indicating heightened participation despite the weakness. On the fundamentals side, the company sports a forward P/E of 8.4 and an ultra‑low price‑to‑book of 0.31, which would appear attractive, yet earnings are negative (trailing EPS –0.62) and the dividend payout ratio sits at 200%, making the 8.11% yield clearly unsustainable. The balance sheet is heavily leveraged, with a debt‑to‑equity of 1900 and total debt of $45.2 B dwarfing cash of $0.66 B, while free cash flow is zero, underscoring cash generation concerns. Volatility is elevated at roughly 45% over the past 30 days and beta is modest (≈0.81), reflecting a stock that moves sharply but is less correlated with the market. The Fear & Greed Index reads “Extreme Greed,” suggesting market optimism may be outpacing the company’s fundamentals. Recent material news includes the board’s approval of a Q2 dividend of $0.16 per share, a move that may further strain cash given the earnings shortfall. Overall, the technical picture is bearish, the dividend is dubious, and the debt load is a major headwind, outweighing the superficial valuation appeal.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Price below all major moving averages
  • Bearish MACD and high volatility
  • Dividend payout exceeds earnings

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Forward earnings estimate improves P/E to 8.4
  • Low price‑to‑book offers value cushion
  • Debt reduction initiatives pending

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Potential turnaround in operating cash flow
  • Undervalued relative to book and peers
  • Long‑term dividend yield attractive if earnings recover

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-0.80%
Profit Margin-18.54%
P/E Ratio8.4
ROE-2.46%
ROA-0.12%
Debt/Equity1900.00
P/B Ratio0.3
Op. Cash Flow$323.0M
Industry P/E16.9

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI44.7
Support$7.33
Resistance$8.74
MA 20$8.12
MA 50$8.43
MA 200$10.74
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index87.93

Valuation

Target Price$9.44
Upside/Downside18.71%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield8.11%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.81
Volatility44.97%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.