NAUT:NASDAQNautilus Biotechnology, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-19 - not real-time
$2.36
Latest Price
8/10Risk
Risk Level: High
Executive Summary
Nautilus Biotechnology is trading at $2.36, just above its $2.30 support level, while technical indicators show a bearish MACD and a neutral‑to‑slightly oversold RSI at 38. Volatility is extreme, with a 30‑day swing above 80% and a beta well above 1**, indicating sharp price swings.*
The company remains a development‑stage biotech with zero revenue, negative EBITDA of $62.5M, and persistent cash burn reflected in negative operating and free cash flow. However, it holds $95.9M in cash against $28.9M of debt, giving it a modest cash runway, and recent news cites reduced operating expenses and progress toward commercializing its proteomics platform.
Valuation metrics such as a price‑to‑book of 2.07 and a forward PE of –3.18 contrast sharply with the industry’s average PE of 27, suggesting the stock is priced for future growth rather than current earnings. The upside potential is estimated near 70%, but the lack of revenue and high sector/regulatory risk keep the investment profile speculative.
The company remains a development‑stage biotech with zero revenue, negative EBITDA of $62.5M, and persistent cash burn reflected in negative operating and free cash flow. However, it holds $95.9M in cash against $28.9M of debt, giving it a modest cash runway, and recent news cites reduced operating expenses and progress toward commercializing its proteomics platform.
Valuation metrics such as a price‑to‑book of 2.07 and a forward PE of –3.18 contrast sharply with the industry’s average PE of 27, suggesting the stock is priced for future growth rather than current earnings. The upside potential is estimated near 70%, but the lack of revenue and high sector/regulatory risk keep the investment profile speculative.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Bearish MACD and price near support
- High short‑term volatility
- Negative cash flow despite cash reserves
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Strategic collaborations and expense reduction
- Potential commercialization of the Voyager platform
- Continued cash burn and lack of revenue
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Significant upside potential (~70%) if platform commercializes
- Strong cash position relative to debt
- Growth‑oriented biotech sector despite high risk
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
P/E Ratio-3.2
ROE-33.69%
ROA-19.77%
Debt/Equity19.99
P/B Ratio2.1
Op. Cash Flow$-49859000
Free Cash Flow$-28882124
Industry P/E26.8
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI37.6
Support$2.30
Resistance$3.16
MA 20$2.70
MA 50$2.93
MA 200$1.91
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.32
Valuation
Target Price$4.00
Upside/Downside69.72%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta1.66
Volatility80.33%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.