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NATU3:BMFBOVESPANatura Cosmeticos SA Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-18 - not real-time

R$10.04

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Technical outlook: The stock is trading above its short‑term and mid‑term moving averages, reinforcing a bullish bias. Volume is on an upward trend, the relative strength index sits near the neutral zone, and the MACD histogram, while still negative, is narrowing, suggesting that bearish momentum may be fading. Valuation pressure: A discounted cash flow model indicates a fair value well above the current market price, pointing to a sizable upside potential.
Fundamental backdrop: Recent earnings are negative, yet forward earnings estimates are positive, delivering a low forward price‑to‑earnings multiple. The price‑to‑book ratio hovers around one, free cash flow is solid, and debt levels are moderate for the sector. The company operates in a consumer‑defensive segment with strong brand presence across several Latin American markets, but it does not pay a dividend and faces typical regulatory and currency considerations.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • price above key moving averages
  • support level intact
  • increasing trading volume

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • DCF upside relative to market price
  • positive forward earnings outlook
  • strong free cash flow generation

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • defensive consumer segment positioning
  • expanding brand footprint in Latin America
  • sustainable cash flow despite short‑term earnings volatility

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-7.30%
Profit Margin-8.18%
P/E Ratio8.5
ROE4.77%
ROA4.52%
Debt/Equity52.16
P/B Ratio1.1
Op. Cash FlowR$-114984000
Free Cash FlowR$2.0B

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI49.0
SupportR$9.17
ResistanceR$11.15
MA 20R$10.19
MA 50R$9.85
MA 200R$8.87
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index88.73

Valuation

Fair ValueR$16.67
Target PriceR$12.39
Upside/Downside23.43%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend

Risk Assessment

Beta0.90
Volatility28.68%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.