NATL:NYSENCR Atleos Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-31 - not real-time
$44.60
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
NCR Atleos is trading above its 20‑day moving average while remaining under the 200‑day trend line, indicating a short‑term bullish bias within a longer‑term uptrend. Technical momentum is neutral with the RSI hovering around 50 and the MACD line just above its signal, while volume has been tapering, suggesting modest participation.
The latest quarter delivered a modest earnings beat on a steady revenue base, yet the consensus expectation was missed, creating short‑term pressure. Meanwhile, the DCF‑derived fair value points to a substantial upside potential, and the company’s ROE exceeds 50%, underscoring strong profitability despite a very high debt load. These dynamics combine to paint a picture of an undervalued growth play tempered by leverage and earnings volatility.
The latest quarter delivered a modest earnings beat on a steady revenue base, yet the consensus expectation was missed, creating short‑term pressure. Meanwhile, the DCF‑derived fair value points to a substantial upside potential, and the company’s ROE exceeds 50%, underscoring strong profitability despite a very high debt load. These dynamics combine to paint a picture of an undervalued growth play tempered by leverage and earnings volatility.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price is near a clear support level and technical indicators are only mildly bullish
- Recent earnings missed consensus, adding short‑term downside pressure
- Decreasing volume trend signals limited buying enthusiasm
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- DCF fair‑value suggests double‑digit upside relative to current price
- Exceptional ROE and improving forward earnings per share indicate strong growth fundamentals
- Bullish technical setup with price above short‑term averages and a bullish MACD cross
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- High leverage (debt‑to‑equity well above industry norms) poses balance‑sheet risk
- Sustainable profitability and cash flow generation support the business model
- Exposure to multiple geographies and regulatory environments adds moderate long‑term uncertainty
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth6.50%
Profit Margin3.85%
P/E Ratio19.9
ROE50.74%
ROA5.92%
Debt/Equity743.18
P/B Ratio8.3
Op. Cash Flow$224.0M
Free Cash Flow$492.6M
Industry P/E41.9
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI49.4
Support$43.42
Resistance$46.11
MA 20$44.65
MA 50$44.35
MA 200$40.41
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index94.07
Valuation
Fair Value$82.64
Target Price$50.27
Upside/Downside12.71%
GradeUndervalued
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta1.15
Volatility16.69%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.