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NATH:NASDAQNathan's Famous, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-19 - not real-time

$101.79

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Nathan's Famous is trading at $101.79, notably above its DCF‑derived fair value of $85.48, indicating a price premium. Technical signals are mixed: the stock sits just above the 20‑day ($100.92) and 50‑day ($100.79) SMAs and marginally above the 200‑day SMA ($101.46), the RSI of 61.8 points to bullish momentum without being overbought, and the MACD histogram remains positive, supporting a short‑term upside bias. However, volume is trending down, suggesting waning participation.
Fundamentally, the company posted 8.9% revenue growth with a gross margin of 30.7% and a healthy operating margin of 15%, while maintaining a modest dividend yield of 1.97% and a payout ratio of 38%, which appears sustainable given its $22.5M operating cash flow. The balance sheet shows low leverage (beta ~0.3‑0.5, debt‑to‑equity zero) but a negative book value, and 30‑day volatility sits around 5%, placing the stock in a low‑beta, moderate‑volatility profile within the consumer‑cyclical sector.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price above DCF fair value but technicals still supportive
  • Decreasing volume indicating potential short‑term softness
  • Strong dividend yield and sustainable payout

Medium Term

1–3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Overvaluation relative to intrinsic estimate
  • Revenue growth modest relative to sector peers
  • Negative book value and high P/B ratio

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Stable dividend income
  • Low beta and moderate volatility
  • Consistent operating margins despite valuation premium

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth8.90%
Profit Margin13.59%
P/E Ratio19.6
ROA39.87%
P/B Ratio-27.3
Op. Cash Flow$22.5M
Free Cash Flow$19.2M

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI61.8
Support$100.36
Resistance$102.12
MA 20$100.92
MA 50$100.79
MA 200$101.46
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.21

Valuation

Fair Value$85.48
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.97%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.54
Volatility5.09%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.