NATH:NASDAQNathan's Famous, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-19 - not real-time
$101.79
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Nathan's Famous is trading at $101.79, notably above its DCF‑derived fair value of $85.48, indicating a price premium. Technical signals are mixed: the stock sits just above the 20‑day ($100.92) and 50‑day ($100.79) SMAs and marginally above the 200‑day SMA ($101.46), the RSI of 61.8 points to bullish momentum without being overbought, and the MACD histogram remains positive, supporting a short‑term upside bias. However, volume is trending down, suggesting waning participation.
Fundamentally, the company posted 8.9% revenue growth with a gross margin of 30.7% and a healthy operating margin of 15%, while maintaining a modest dividend yield of 1.97% and a payout ratio of 38%, which appears sustainable given its $22.5M operating cash flow. The balance sheet shows low leverage (beta ~0.3‑0.5, debt‑to‑equity zero) but a negative book value, and 30‑day volatility sits around 5%, placing the stock in a low‑beta, moderate‑volatility profile within the consumer‑cyclical sector.
Fundamentally, the company posted 8.9% revenue growth with a gross margin of 30.7% and a healthy operating margin of 15%, while maintaining a modest dividend yield of 1.97% and a payout ratio of 38%, which appears sustainable given its $22.5M operating cash flow. The balance sheet shows low leverage (beta ~0.3‑0.5, debt‑to‑equity zero) but a negative book value, and 30‑day volatility sits around 5%, placing the stock in a low‑beta, moderate‑volatility profile within the consumer‑cyclical sector.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price above DCF fair value but technicals still supportive
- Decreasing volume indicating potential short‑term softness
- Strong dividend yield and sustainable payout
Medium Term
1–3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Overvaluation relative to intrinsic estimate
- Revenue growth modest relative to sector peers
- Negative book value and high P/B ratio
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Stable dividend income
- Low beta and moderate volatility
- Consistent operating margins despite valuation premium
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth8.90%
Profit Margin13.59%
P/E Ratio19.6
ROA39.87%
P/B Ratio-27.3
Op. Cash Flow$22.5M
Free Cash Flow$19.2M
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI61.8
Support$100.36
Resistance$102.12
MA 20$100.92
MA 50$100.79
MA 200$101.46
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.21
Valuation
Fair Value$85.48
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.97%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.54
Volatility5.09%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
Similar Tickers
This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.