NATH:NASDAQNathan's Famous, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-22 - not real-time
$101.66
Latest Price
4/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Nathan's Famous is trading at $101.66, comfortably above its 20‑day ($101.41), 50‑day ($101.20) and 200‑day ($100.92) simple moving averages, indicating a sustained bullish bias. The MACD histogram is positive and the MACD line sits above its signal line, reinforcing momentum, while volume trends are increasing and the 30‑day volatility is modest at just under 5%, suggesting price stability. Fundamentally, the company posted 13.9% revenue growth, strong operating margins of 22.5% and a healthy free cash flow generation, supporting its ability to maintain the declared $0.50 quarterly dividend with a 41% payout ratio. However, the discounted cash‑flow fair‑value estimate of $93.86 is well below the current market price, flagging the stock as overvalued relative to intrinsic expectations. The low beta of 0.35 and a dividend yield of 1.97% further underscore a defensive profile in a traditionally consumer‑cyclical sector.
Given the blend of robust short‑term technicals and solid cash generation, but tempered by valuation stretch and modest liquidity, the outlook is cautiously optimistic: the stock may benefit from continued momentum, yet investors should monitor valuation pressure and sector cyclicality before committing long‑term capital.
Given the blend of robust short‑term technicals and solid cash generation, but tempered by valuation stretch and modest liquidity, the outlook is cautiously optimistic: the stock may benefit from continued momentum, yet investors should monitor valuation pressure and sector cyclicality before committing long‑term capital.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Bullish technical indicators (price above SMAs, positive MACD)
- Increasing volume supporting momentum
- Strong short‑term price support at $100.75
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Solid revenue growth and operating margins
- Sustainable dividend with comfortable payout ratio
- Valuation gap between market price and DCF fair value
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Established brand with diversified product licensing
- Consistent cash flow generation supporting dividend
- Overvaluation risk and consumer‑cyclical exposure
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth13.90%
Profit Margin12.35%
P/E Ratio21.0
ROA38.87%
P/B Ratio-29.3
Op. Cash Flow$18.2M
Free Cash Flow$17.5M
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI54.3
Support$100.75
Resistance$102.46
MA 20$101.41
MA 50$101.20
MA 200$100.92
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index90
Valuation
Fair Value$93.86
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.97%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.35
Volatility4.93%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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STOCKThis analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.