MZTI:NASDAQThe Marzetti Company Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-21 - not real-time
$107.06
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Technical outlook: The stock trades below its 20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages, signaling a bearish price trend, yet the MACD histogram has turned positive and the 14‑day RSI is slipping into oversold territory, hinting at a possible short‑term rebound from the nearby support level just above the 52‑week low.
Fundamental backdrop: Valuation metrics are modest with a price‑to‑earnings ratio in line with the consumer defensive sector, while the dividend yield is attractive and the payout ratio remains comfortably sustainable given solid free cash flow. A discounted cash‑flow model places intrinsic value below the current market price, but the recent acquisition of Bachan’s broadens the sauce portfolio, offering a catalyst for incremental growth. Low beta underscores limited market‑wide volatility, reinforcing the stock’s defensive character.
Fundamental backdrop: Valuation metrics are modest with a price‑to‑earnings ratio in line with the consumer defensive sector, while the dividend yield is attractive and the payout ratio remains comfortably sustainable given solid free cash flow. A discounted cash‑flow model places intrinsic value below the current market price, but the recent acquisition of Bachan’s broadens the sauce portfolio, offering a catalyst for incremental growth. Low beta underscores limited market‑wide volatility, reinforcing the stock’s defensive character.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price near key support with limited downside
- RSI approaching oversold levels
- Positive MACD histogram suggesting momentum shift
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Acquisition of Bachan’s expands sauce category exposure
- Attractive dividend yield and sustainable payout
- Defensive sector positioning with low systematic risk
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Stable cash flows and dividend reliability
- Modest revenue growth offset by brand licensing partnerships
- Low beta and defensive consumer staple profile
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-1.00%
Profit Margin9.06%
P/E Ratio16.8
ROE17.23%
ROA10.97%
Debt/Equity3.56
P/B Ratio2.8
Op. Cash Flow$316.8M
Free Cash Flow$186.7M
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI36.8
Support$104.58
Resistance$115.84
MA 20$110.11
MA 50$119.16
MA 200$153.21
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.46
Valuation
Fair Value$96.20
Target Price$159.40
Upside/Downside48.89%
GradeFair
TypeValue
Dividend Yield3.74%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.17
Volatility22.59%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.