MTLN:LSEMetlen Energy & Metals PLC Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-11 - not real-time
€35.90
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Metlen Energy & Metals trades at €35.9, well below its DCF fair value of €66.2, representing roughly a 56% upside. The stock’s trailing P/E of 7.5 is dramatically cheaper than the industry average of 20.7, and analysts collectively rate it a strong buy with a median target of €54.5. Revenue is surging (+45% YoY) and ROE sits at a healthy 20%, but free cash flow is negative and debt‑to‑equity is high at 139%, highlighting balance‑sheet pressure.
Technical indicators show the price below the 20‑day (35.45) and 50‑day (39.95) SMAs, confirming a bearish trend, yet the MACD histogram is positive and the RSI sits near neutral at 46, suggesting limited downside momentum. Recent news of a 25% reduction in 2025 EBITDA guidance and the sale of a 283 MW UK solar portfolio adds short‑term uncertainty, while the extreme greed sentiment (FGI 75) underscores market optimism despite high 30‑day volatility (≈82%).
Technical indicators show the price below the 20‑day (35.45) and 50‑day (39.95) SMAs, confirming a bearish trend, yet the MACD histogram is positive and the RSI sits near neutral at 46, suggesting limited downside momentum. Recent news of a 25% reduction in 2025 EBITDA guidance and the sale of a 283 MW UK solar portfolio adds short‑term uncertainty, while the extreme greed sentiment (FGI 75) underscores market optimism despite high 30‑day volatility (≈82%).
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Price below short‑term moving averages
- 2025 EBITDA guidance cut by 25%
- Decreasing trading volume
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Significant valuation upside vs DCF
- Low beta indicating limited market‑wide volatility
- High leverage and negative free cash flow
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Substantial upside potential (≈56% above current price)
- Strong revenue growth and ROE
- Strategic exposure to renewable and energy transition assets
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth45.30%
Profit Margin8.61%
P/E Ratio7.5
ROE20.39%
ROA5.13%
Debt/Equity138.79
P/B Ratio1.6
Op. Cash Flow€472.5M
Free Cash Flow€-1410886400
Industry P/E20.7
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI46.3
Support€33.00
Resistance€38.15
MA 20€35.45
MA 50€39.95
MA 200€44.43
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index75.23
Valuation
Fair Value€66.24
Target Price€56.00
Upside/Downside55.99%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Risk Assessment
Beta0.11
Volatility82.11%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
Similar Tickers
This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.