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MTLN:LSEMetlen Energy & Metals PLC Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-11 - not real-time

€35.90

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Metlen Energy & Metals trades at €35.9, well below its DCF fair value of €66.2, representing roughly a 56% upside. The stock’s trailing P/E of 7.5 is dramatically cheaper than the industry average of 20.7, and analysts collectively rate it a strong buy with a median target of €54.5. Revenue is surging (+45% YoY) and ROE sits at a healthy 20%, but free cash flow is negative and debt‑to‑equity is high at 139%, highlighting balance‑sheet pressure.
Technical indicators show the price below the 20‑day (35.45) and 50‑day (39.95) SMAs, confirming a bearish trend, yet the MACD histogram is positive and the RSI sits near neutral at 46, suggesting limited downside momentum. Recent news of a 25% reduction in 2025 EBITDA guidance and the sale of a 283 MW UK solar portfolio adds short‑term uncertainty, while the extreme greed sentiment (FGI 75) underscores market optimism despite high 30‑day volatility (≈82%).

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Price below short‑term moving averages
  • 2025 EBITDA guidance cut by 25%
  • Decreasing trading volume

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Significant valuation upside vs DCF
  • Low beta indicating limited market‑wide volatility
  • High leverage and negative free cash flow

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Substantial upside potential (≈56% above current price)
  • Strong revenue growth and ROE
  • Strategic exposure to renewable and energy transition assets

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth45.30%
Profit Margin8.61%
P/E Ratio7.5
ROE20.39%
ROA5.13%
Debt/Equity138.79
P/B Ratio1.6
Op. Cash Flow€472.5M
Free Cash Flow€-1410886400
Industry P/E20.7

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI46.3
Support€33.00
Resistance€38.15
MA 20€35.45
MA 50€39.95
MA 200€44.43
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index75.23

Valuation

Fair Value€66.24
Target Price€56.00
Upside/Downside55.99%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend

Risk Assessment

Beta0.11
Volatility82.11%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.