MRNA:NASDAQModerna, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-07-17 - not real-time
$63.15
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Moderna (MRNA) trades at $63.15, sitting just below its 20‑day SMA (68.58) but comfortably above the 50‑day (56.79) and 200‑day (43.21) averages, signaling a short‑term pullback within a longer‑term bullish framework. The MACD is in a bearish crossover (histogram –1.54) and the RSI sits near 48, suggesting limited upside momentum, while volatility is elevated at ~92% over the past 30 days and beta exceeds 1.6, underscoring heightened price swings. Fundamentally, the company is overvalued – the consensus target price (~$48) is well below the current level, and key profitability metrics remain negative (negative gross, operating and profit margins, and a forward P/E of –15).
Material news includes a new EU contract for up to 24 million doses of the RSV vaccine mRESVIA® and anticipation of Phase III melanoma data later this quarter, which could provide a catalyst but must be weighed against the broader market’s “Extreme Greed” sentiment (Fear‑Greed Index 91.55) and the stock’s recent 2.6% rally on the contract news.
Material news includes a new EU contract for up to 24 million doses of the RSV vaccine mRESVIA® and anticipation of Phase III melanoma data later this quarter, which could provide a catalyst but must be weighed against the broader market’s “Extreme Greed” sentiment (Fear‑Greed Index 91.55) and the stock’s recent 2.6% rally on the contract news.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Price just below 20‑day SMA with bearish MACD crossover
- Elevated volatility and high beta increasing price risk
- Negative earnings and overvaluation relative to target price
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- EU contract for 24 M RSV doses providing near‑term revenue uplift
- Upcoming Phase III melanoma data could unlock a high‑margin product
- Long‑term bullish trend supported by SMA50 and SMA200 positioning
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Strategic platform potential across vaccines and oncology despite current losses
- High debt‑to‑equity ratio and negative cash flow constrain financial flexibility
- Sector‑specific regulatory and clinical trial risks remain elevated
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth260.20%
Profit Margin-143.55%
P/E Ratio-15.4
ROE-36.56%
ROA-13.09%
Debt/Equity17.52
P/B Ratio3.4
Op. Cash Flow$-1466000000
Free Cash Flow$-20000000
Industry P/E29.1
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI47.7
Support$54.51
Resistance$85.60
MA 20$68.58
MA 50$56.79
MA 200$43.21
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.55
Valuation
Target Price$48.26
Upside/Downside-23.57%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta1.62
Volatility92.25%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.