MRK:NYSEMerck & Company, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-18 - not real-time
$119.07
Latest Price
4/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Merck (MRK) is trading at $119.07, essentially flat on the 20‑day and 50‑day SMAs (≈$119.2) and well above its 200‑day SMA of $98.4, confirming a bullish longer‑term bias. The RSI sits at 50.7, indicating neutral momentum, while the MACD histogram is negative and the signal line is bearish, suggesting short‑term pressure. Volume has been trending lower, and the stock is approaching the $124 resistance level with a support cushion near $112.7. Valuation metrics show a trailing P/E of 16.4 versus an industry average of 26.2, positioning MRK as a relative value play, yet a discounted cash‑flow model pins fair value around $66, implying the market is pricing in a premium. The dividend yield of 2.86% with a 45% payout ratio is supported by robust operating cash flow of $16.5 bn and a free cash flow of $11.9 bn, underscoring sustainability.
Recent material news adds catalyst potential: Merck’s $53‑per‑share cash acquisition of Terns Pharmaceuticals expands its oncology pipeline, and a positive Phase 3 result for the oral PCSK9 inhibitor enlicitide decanoate opens a new growth avenue. UBS lifted its price target to $145, and the consensus analyst median target sits at $135, reinforcing a buy consensus. Combined with a low beta of 0.48, moderate volatility (20.6% 30‑day), and a strong balance sheet, the outlook remains favorable for both income‑focused and growth‑oriented investors.
Recent material news adds catalyst potential: Merck’s $53‑per‑share cash acquisition of Terns Pharmaceuticals expands its oncology pipeline, and a positive Phase 3 result for the oral PCSK9 inhibitor enlicitide decanoate opens a new growth avenue. UBS lifted its price target to $145, and the consensus analyst median target sits at $135, reinforcing a buy consensus. Combined with a low beta of 0.48, moderate volatility (20.6% 30‑day), and a strong balance sheet, the outlook remains favorable for both income‑focused and growth‑oriented investors.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price near $124 resistance with limited upside
- Bearish MACD histogram indicating short‑term weakness
- Decreasing volume suggesting reduced buying pressure
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Acquisition of Terns Pharmaceuticals expanding pipeline
- Positive Phase 3 data for oral PCSK9 inhibitor
- Analyst consensus target median $135 and UBS lift to $145
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- Sustainable 2.86% dividend yield with strong cash flow
- Low beta and defensive healthcare exposure
- Long‑term growth from diversified product portfolio and new indications
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth5.00%
Profit Margin28.08%
P/E Ratio16.4
ROE36.88%
ROA12.04%
Debt/Equity95.96
P/B Ratio5.6
Op. Cash Flow$16.5B
Free Cash Flow$11.9B
Industry P/E26.2
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI50.7
Support$112.72
Resistance$124.00
MA 20$119.21
MA 50$119.13
MA 200$98.41
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.21
Valuation
Fair Value$65.85
Target Price$129.81
Upside/Downside9.02%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.86%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.48
Volatility20.64%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.