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MRK:NYSEMerck & Company, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-09 - not real-time

$116.03

Latest Price

4/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Merck (MRK) is trading at $116.03, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA of 120.24 and 50‑day SMA of 114.10, indicating a short‑term bullish bias. The stock sits near a solid support level of $113.82 and faces resistance around $125.14, while the 30‑day volatility of roughly 27% suggests price swings are manageable. Fundamental metrics reinforce the case: a trailing P/E of 15.9 is well below the industry average of 25.2, ROE stands at an impressive 36.9%, and the dividend yield of 2.94% is backed by a modest payout ratio of 45%. Recent material news—including FDA approval of the Keytruda + Paclitaxel regimen and the announced split of the human‑health unit—adds catalyst momentum, though the full‑year 2026 outlook fell short of expectations, tempering sentiment.
Overall, MRK appears fairly valued with modest upside (~9.6%) and limited downside, supported by strong cash generation, low beta (0.46), and a defensive healthcare profile. Investors should weigh the near‑term price stability and dividend income against medium‑term growth prospects from the pipeline and the long‑term dividend sustainability.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Recent FDA approval of Keytruda combination therapy
  • Price near strong support at $113.82
  • Stable dividend yield of 2.94%

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Revenue growth of 5% with high gross margin (77%)
  • Analyst consensus buy rating and median target of $130
  • Robust cash flow and low leverage relative to earnings

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Sustainable dividend supported by strong free cash flow
  • Diversified pipeline and upcoming unit split to mitigate patent risk
  • Low beta and defensive healthcare positioning

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth5.00%
Profit Margin28.08%
P/E Ratio15.9
ROE36.88%
ROA12.04%
Debt/Equity95.96
P/B Ratio5.5
Op. Cash Flow$16.5B
Free Cash Flow$11.9B
Industry P/E25.2

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI45.7
Support$113.82
Resistance$125.14
MA 20$120.24
MA 50$114.10
MA 200$92.90
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index100

Valuation

Fair Value$68.18
Target Price$127.22
Upside/Downside9.65%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.94%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.46
Volatility27.71%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.