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MPC:NYSEMarathon Petroleum Corporation analysis

Data as of Oct 19, 2026 - not real-time

Latest price
$473.33
Risk: medium
4/10Medium risk

Summary

Marathon Petroleum Corporation is priced at $473.32 and its moving averages line up in bullish order, the shorter sitting above the longer. Across the trailing 30 sessions it gained 21.7%. Momentum indicators put RSI at 71.3 (overbought) with MACD reading bullish. Watch $378.80 as support and $493.69 as the nearer resistance level.
The shares look overvalued, trading on 16.4 times earnings below a sector average of 19.3. The average analyst target implies 6.5% below today's level. Revenue is growing at 53.7% on a 5.5% profit margin. The 0.84% dividend yield looks covered by current payout levels.
The composite risk read is 4/10, putting it in moderate territory. With 30-day volatility of 36.5%, a beta of -0.27 and a maximum drawdown of 18.7%, position sizing matters here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 89 on the fear-greed composite.
The horizons diverge: buy near-term but hold on a long view, at 3/10 conviction over the longer horizon.

Top market events

  • Marathon Petroleum Corporation stocks have been trading up by 4.
  • Marathon Petroleum stock posted USD 51.99 billion in Q2 revenue, up 53.5 percent year over year. EPS
  • Second-quarter revenue rose 53.50 percent to USD 51.99 billion. Marathon Petroleum stock costs EUR 3

Market outlook

Short term

< 1 year

Positive

Model confidence4/104 out of 10

Key factors

  • Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
  • RSI at 71.3 signals overbought conditions
  • Trading above the 200-day average of 277.91

Medium term

1–3 years

Neutral

Model confidence3/103 out of 10

Key factors

  • Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
  • RSI at 71.3 signals overbought conditions
  • P/E of 16.4 versus sector average of 19.3

Long term

> 3 years

Neutral

Model confidence3/103 out of 10

Key factors

  • P/E of 16.4 versus sector average of 19.3
  • Analyst targets imply -6.5% versus the current price
  • Revenue growth of +53.7%

Key metrics

Financial health

Revenue Growth53.70%
Profit Margin5.55%
P/E Ratio16.4
ROE42.10%
ROA8.74%
Debt/Equity133.33
P/B Ratio7.0
Op. Cash Flow$17.1B
Free Cash Flow$9.2B
Industry P/E19.3

Technical analysis

TrendBullish
RSI71.3
Support$378.80
Resistance$493.69
MA 20$432.87
MA 50$399.32
MA 200$277.91
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index88.84

Valuation

Fair Value$950.75
Target Price$442.33
Upside/Downside-6.55%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield0.84%

Risk assessment

Beta-0.27
Volatility36.49%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.