MPC:NYSEMarathon Petroleum Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-22 - not real-time
$254.65
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Marathon Petroleum posted a stronger first‑quarter than expected, driven by high refinery utilization and robust refining margins. Management highlighted operational reliability and a favorable supply‑demand backdrop amid geopolitical tension, which supported earnings growth and a solid dividend payout.
The technical landscape shows the price trading above short‑term moving averages with a bullish trend, while the MACD has turned slightly bearish and the RSI sits in the upper half, suggesting limited upside in the near term but a resilient underlying business.
The technical landscape shows the price trading above short‑term moving averages with a bullish trend, while the MACD has turned slightly bearish and the RSI sits in the upper half, suggesting limited upside in the near term but a resilient underlying business.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- price near resistance with modest upside
- MACD bearish crossover
- stable volume and dividend support
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- strong earnings beat and operating cash flow
- high utilization and favorable refining margins
- attractive dividend yield with low payout
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- exposure to renewable diesel segment
- sector volatility from commodity price swings
- solid balance sheet despite elevated debt levels
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth8.80%
Profit Margin3.41%
P/E Ratio16.8
ROE27.46%
ROA5.15%
Debt/Equity146.52
P/B Ratio4.3
Op. Cash Flow$9.4B
Free Cash Flow$3.5B
Industry P/E21.6
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI57.0
Support$224.10
Resistance$264.14
MA 20$249.17
MA 50$238.85
MA 200$199.30
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.61
Valuation
Fair Value$117.49
Target Price$258.78
Upside/Downside1.62%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.57%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.04
Volatility38.59%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.