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MPB:NASDAQMid Penn Bancorp Analysis

Data as of 2026-07-01 - not real-time

$35.64

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Mid Penn Bancorp is trading at a 20‑day SMA of 33.71, comfortably above its 50‑day (33.11) and 200‑day (31.59) averages, indicating a sustained bullish trend. The RSI of 66.5 suggests momentum remains strong but is approaching overbought territory, while a bullish MACD histogram (0.16) reinforces short‑term upside potential. Volume is on an increasing trend, supporting the price advance toward the current resistance of 35.64. However, the DCF‑derived fair value of 86.49 implies the stock is significantly overvalued relative to intrinsic estimates, and the upside/downside metric is negative at -0.39%. Fundamentals show robust revenue growth of 33%, healthy operating margins (~35%) and a dividend yield of 2.47% with a modest payout ratio (~38%), indicating dividend sustainability. The stock’s beta of 0.64 points to lower market sensitivity, yet 30‑day volatility is elevated at 25.4%, reflecting price swings. Overall, the company blends growth characteristics with value‑oriented pricing, but the current market price appears stretched against intrinsic valuations.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Price at resistance with limited upside
  • Overvalued relative to DCF fair value
  • High short‑term volatility

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Strong revenue growth and operating margins
  • Sustainable dividend yield
  • Bullish technical momentum despite valuation stretch

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Stable dividend payout and cash generation
  • Low beta and limited currency exposure
  • Moderate sector and regulatory risk for regional banks

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth33.30%
Profit Margin21.32%
P/E Ratio16.2
ROE6.59%
ROA0.82%
P/B Ratio1.0
Op. Cash Flow$82.0M
Industry P/E17.3

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI66.5
Support$31.10
Resistance$35.64
MA 20$33.71
MA 50$33.11
MA 200$31.59
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.63

Valuation

Fair Value$86.49
Target Price$35.50
Upside/Downside-0.39%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.47%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.64
Volatility25.45%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.