MPB:NASDAQMid Penn Bancorp Analysis
Data as of 2026-07-01 - not real-time
$35.64
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Mid Penn Bancorp is trading at a 20‑day SMA of 33.71, comfortably above its 50‑day (33.11) and 200‑day (31.59) averages, indicating a sustained bullish trend. The RSI of 66.5 suggests momentum remains strong but is approaching overbought territory, while a bullish MACD histogram (0.16) reinforces short‑term upside potential. Volume is on an increasing trend, supporting the price advance toward the current resistance of 35.64. However, the DCF‑derived fair value of 86.49 implies the stock is significantly overvalued relative to intrinsic estimates, and the upside/downside metric is negative at -0.39%. Fundamentals show robust revenue growth of 33%, healthy operating margins (~35%) and a dividend yield of 2.47% with a modest payout ratio (~38%), indicating dividend sustainability. The stock’s beta of 0.64 points to lower market sensitivity, yet 30‑day volatility is elevated at 25.4%, reflecting price swings. Overall, the company blends growth characteristics with value‑oriented pricing, but the current market price appears stretched against intrinsic valuations.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Price at resistance with limited upside
- Overvalued relative to DCF fair value
- High short‑term volatility
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Strong revenue growth and operating margins
- Sustainable dividend yield
- Bullish technical momentum despite valuation stretch
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Stable dividend payout and cash generation
- Low beta and limited currency exposure
- Moderate sector and regulatory risk for regional banks
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth33.30%
Profit Margin21.32%
P/E Ratio16.2
ROE6.59%
ROA0.82%
P/B Ratio1.0
Op. Cash Flow$82.0M
Industry P/E17.3
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI66.5
Support$31.10
Resistance$35.64
MA 20$33.71
MA 50$33.11
MA 200$31.59
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.63
Valuation
Fair Value$86.49
Target Price$35.50
Upside/Downside-0.39%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.47%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.64
Volatility25.45%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
Similar Tickers
This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.