MORN:NASDAQMorningstar, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-18 - not real-time
$184.28
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Morningstar, Inc. (MORN) is trading at $184.28, just shy of its technical resistance of $184.86 and comfortably above its 20‑day ($171.40) and 50‑day ($172.85) moving averages, while still well below the 200‑day average of $220.21, signaling a bearish longer‑term bias. Momentum indicators are mixed: the RSI sits at 59, indicating neutral pressure, yet the MACD line is positive (0.62) against a negative signal line (-1.19), producing a bullish histogram (+1.81). Volume is on a downtrend and 30‑day volatility is elevated at 40.85%, suggesting price swings may be pronounced in the near term. Fundamentals show solid top‑line growth (8.5% YoY revenue increase) and strong profitability (ROE 26.3%, operating margin 21.7%) but the stock trades at a premium (PE 20.36 vs industry 17.68, PB 5.99) and carries a high debt‑to‑equity ratio of 103%, though cash on hand offsets a portion of the leverage. The DCF fair value of $199.84 implies roughly 8% upside, while the analyst consensus target median of $265 points to a larger upside potential of about 36% from current levels. A modest dividend yield of 1.09% with a 21% payout ratio appears sustainable given robust free cash flow. The upcoming Q1 2026 earnings release adds a catalyst that could swing sentiment either way.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price hovering near resistance with decreasing volume
- Mixed technical signals (bullish MACD vs bearish longer‑term trend)
- Impending Q1 earnings release
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- DCF fair value indicating upside
- Strong earnings growth and high ROE
- Sustainable dividend and solid free cash flow
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- Diversified data and investment platforms driving recurring revenue
- Consistent profitability and attractive margins
- Long‑term upside potential reflected in analyst price targets
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth8.50%
Profit Margin15.30%
P/E Ratio20.4
ROE26.35%
ROA8.86%
Debt/Equity103.21
P/B Ratio6.0
Op. Cash Flow$589.7M
Free Cash Flow$446.4M
Industry P/E17.7
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI59.1
Support$156.37
Resistance$184.86
MA 20$171.40
MA 50$172.85
MA 200$220.21
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.21
Valuation
Fair Value$199.84
Target Price$250.00
Upside/Downside35.66%
GradeUndervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield1.09%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.64
Volatility40.85%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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STOCKThis analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.