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MORN:NASDAQMorningstar, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-18 - not real-time

$184.28

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Morningstar, Inc. (MORN) is trading at $184.28, just shy of its technical resistance of $184.86 and comfortably above its 20‑day ($171.40) and 50‑day ($172.85) moving averages, while still well below the 200‑day average of $220.21, signaling a bearish longer‑term bias. Momentum indicators are mixed: the RSI sits at 59, indicating neutral pressure, yet the MACD line is positive (0.62) against a negative signal line (-1.19), producing a bullish histogram (+1.81). Volume is on a downtrend and 30‑day volatility is elevated at 40.85%, suggesting price swings may be pronounced in the near term. Fundamentals show solid top‑line growth (8.5% YoY revenue increase) and strong profitability (ROE 26.3%, operating margin 21.7%) but the stock trades at a premium (PE 20.36 vs industry 17.68, PB 5.99) and carries a high debt‑to‑equity ratio of 103%, though cash on hand offsets a portion of the leverage. The DCF fair value of $199.84 implies roughly 8% upside, while the analyst consensus target median of $265 points to a larger upside potential of about 36% from current levels. A modest dividend yield of 1.09% with a 21% payout ratio appears sustainable given robust free cash flow. The upcoming Q1 2026 earnings release adds a catalyst that could swing sentiment either way.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price hovering near resistance with decreasing volume
  • Mixed technical signals (bullish MACD vs bearish longer‑term trend)
  • Impending Q1 earnings release

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • DCF fair value indicating upside
  • Strong earnings growth and high ROE
  • Sustainable dividend and solid free cash flow

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Diversified data and investment platforms driving recurring revenue
  • Consistent profitability and attractive margins
  • Long‑term upside potential reflected in analyst price targets

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth8.50%
Profit Margin15.30%
P/E Ratio20.4
ROE26.35%
ROA8.86%
Debt/Equity103.21
P/B Ratio6.0
Op. Cash Flow$589.7M
Free Cash Flow$446.4M
Industry P/E17.7

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI59.1
Support$156.37
Resistance$184.86
MA 20$171.40
MA 50$172.85
MA 200$220.21
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.21

Valuation

Fair Value$199.84
Target Price$250.00
Upside/Downside35.66%
GradeUndervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield1.09%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.64
Volatility40.85%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.