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MORN:NASDAQMorningstar, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-25 - not real-time

$179.64

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Morningstar, Inc. is trading just above its short‑term moving averages, with the 20‑day and 50‑day SMAs providing modest support while the price remains well below the 200‑day SMA, signaling a longer‑term bearish bias. Technical momentum shows a bullish MACD histogram despite a negative MACD line, and an RSI that sits in the neutral zone, suggesting limited downside pressure. Recent headlines highlight the launch of new corporate credit analytics tools, the integration of CRSP indexes, and a partnership to embed Morningstar data into AI platforms, all of which reinforce the company’s growth narrative. The latest earnings beat and upward revisions from analysts have added to the positive sentiment, reflected in an extreme‑greed market mood.
Fundamentally, the firm delivers strong profitability with high gross and operating margins, a robust return on equity, and a low payout ratio that supports dividend sustainability. While leverage is elevated, cash flow generation remains solid, and the discounted cash‑flow model points to a fair value substantially above the current price, implying meaningful upside. Given the blend of growth drivers, defensive dividend profile, and relatively low beta, the stock presents an attractive risk‑adjusted opportunity for investors willing to navigate short‑term volatility.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Technical support from short‑term moving averages
  • Recent earnings beat and positive analyst upgrades
  • Product launch and AI integration news

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued DCF estimate suggesting upside
  • Sustained profit margins and strong cash flow
  • Continued revenue growth from expanding data services

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • High return on equity and durable competitive moat
  • Diversified global footprint reducing geographic risk
  • Low dividend payout ratio supporting future dividend growth

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth10.80%
Profit Margin16.06%
P/E Ratio18.4
ROE30.66%
ROA9.05%
Debt/Equity187.15
P/B Ratio6.7
Op. Cash Flow$590.2M
Free Cash Flow$452.8M
Industry P/E16.8

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI55.4
Support$160.79
Resistance$189.28
MA 20$173.61
MA 50$174.65
MA 200$206.33
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.8

Valuation

Fair Value$207.97
Target Price$252.33
Upside/Downside40.47%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.11%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.43
Volatility52.50%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.