MIDD:NASDAQThe Middleby Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-19 - not real-time
$144.41
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
The Middleby Corporation is trading at $144.41, just below its 20‑day SMA of $145.45, indicating a modest technical pullback within an overall bullish trend. Valuation metrics suggest a sizable upside, with a DCF fair value of $251.45 and a 35% upside potential, while the trailing P/E of 19.8 is well under the industry average of 29.5, marking the stock as potentially undervalued. However, the MACD histogram is negative and the RSI sits at 48.8, signaling limited short‑term momentum and a neutral price momentum stance. Recent earnings showed a 7.4% YoY revenue decline to $839.9 M, yet adjusted EPS of $2.16 beat expectations and guidance for the next quarter tops analyst forecasts, highlighting resilient earnings despite sales pressure. The company has filed for a spin‑off of its Food Processing segment, a catalyst that could unlock value and improve the balance sheet, while a notable institutional holder (Bares Capital) maintains a long‑term position. High 30‑day volatility (≈47%) and a beta above 1.1 point to elevated market risk, but increasing volume and strong operating cash flow provide a supportive liquidity backdrop.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Earnings beat with EPS above consensus
- Negative MACD histogram indicating short‑term weakness
- Increasing trading volume supporting liquidity
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Spin‑off of Food Processing expected to create shareholder value
- Valuation gap versus peers (low P/E, high DCF upside)
- Guidance above analyst estimates and improving operating cash flow
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Sustained demand for commercial foodservice equipment
- High debt‑to‑equity ratio (~80%) posing balance‑sheet risk
- Potential for continued margin improvement post‑spin‑off
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth15.00%
Profit Margin-12.69%
P/E Ratio19.8
ROE12.04%
ROA5.86%
Debt/Equity79.80
P/B Ratio2.5
Op. Cash Flow$554.7M
Free Cash Flow$541.0M
Industry P/E29.5
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI48.8
Support$136.40
Resistance$166.89
MA 20$145.45
MA 50$142.03
MA 200$140.12
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.25
Valuation
Fair Value$251.45
Target Price$195.25
Upside/Downside35.21%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Risk Assessment
Beta1.14
Volatility47.51%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.