MGRC:NASDAQMcGrath RentCorp Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-03 - not real-time
$106.70
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
McGrath RentCorp (MGRC) is trading at $106.7, which sits below its 20‑day ($111.4), 50‑day ($112.2) and 200‑day ($112.2) simple moving averages, signaling a bearish technical backdrop. The RSI of 36 and a bearish MACD histogram further underscore short‑term momentum weakness, while the price is hovering just above the identified support level of $104.98 and well under the resistance of $116.77. Volatility is elevated at 32.5% over the past 30 days, and beta around 0.8 suggests the stock moves less than the market but still carries noticeable systematic risk.
Fundamentally, MGRC trades at a forward PE of 15.2 versus an industry average of 30.1, indicating relative cheapness, and its dividend yield of 1.82% is supported by a modest payout ratio of 31%. However, the DCF‑derived fair value of $35.9 is far below the current price, highlighting a potential overvaluation gap, and the company’s net‑debt position ($546 M debt vs $2.4 M cash) raises liquidity concerns despite solid operating cash flow and a 13% ROE.
Fundamentally, MGRC trades at a forward PE of 15.2 versus an industry average of 30.1, indicating relative cheapness, and its dividend yield of 1.82% is supported by a modest payout ratio of 31%. However, the DCF‑derived fair value of $35.9 is far below the current price, highlighting a potential overvaluation gap, and the company’s net‑debt position ($546 M debt vs $2.4 M cash) raises liquidity concerns despite solid operating cash flow and a 13% ROE.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price below key moving averages and bearish MACD
- High short‑term volatility
- DCF fair value far below market price
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Attractive forward PE relative to industry
- Sustainable dividend with low payout ratio
- Strong operating cash flow offsetting debt load
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Potential price correction toward intrinsic value
- Stable dividend income
- Modest earnings growth and solid ROE
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth1.60%
Profit Margin16.38%
P/E Ratio16.9
ROE13.07%
ROA6.53%
Debt/Equity44.15
P/B Ratio2.1
Op. Cash Flow$244.2M
Free Cash Flow$100.8M
Industry P/E30.1
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI36.2
Support$104.98
Resistance$116.77
MA 20$111.42
MA 50$112.17
MA 200$112.21
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index92.57
Valuation
Fair Value$35.92
Target Price$145.40
Upside/Downside36.27%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.82%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.80
Volatility32.50%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.