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MGRC:NASDAQMcGrath RentCorp Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-20 - not real-time

$109.92

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

McGrath RentCorp (MGRC) is trading at $109.92, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA of $113.78 but still below the calculated resistance of $120.39, indicating modest upside potential while remaining close to the identified support of $104.89. Technical indicators show a bearish MACD histogram (-0.46) and a sub‑50 RSI (42.9), suggesting short‑term price pressure, yet the decreasing volume trend and a neutral 30‑day volatility of 35% point to a market that is not aggressively trending. Fundamentally, the stock’s trailing P/E of 17.45 sits well under the industry average of 29.16, the dividend yield of 1.77% is backed by a healthy payout ratio (30.8%) and robust operating cash flow ($244 M), supporting dividend sustainability. The DCF‑derived fair value of $34.78 per share starkly exceeds the current price, flagging a possible overvaluation on a discounted cash‑flow basis, while the forward P/E of 15.68 and a forward‑looking growth narrative (1.6% revenue growth, $27 M Q1 profit) suggest a blend of growth and value characteristics. Recent material news—first‑quarter profit of $27 M, a $725 M financing round, and a miss on Q1 forecasts—adds mixed sentiment, but the company’s strong cash generation and low debt‑to‑equity exposure (44.1×) mitigate immediate downside risk. Overall, MGRC presents a balanced profile: modest near‑term technical weakness offset by solid fundamentals, sustainable dividend, and a valuation that leans toward being fairly priced.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • bearish MACD histogram indicating short‑term downside pressure
  • RSI below 50 suggesting oversold conditions but potential rebound
  • proximity to support level at $104.89 limiting further decline

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • strong operating cash flow ($244 M) and free cash flow ($100 M) supporting growth initiatives
  • recent $725 M financing providing capital for expansion and acquisition
  • dividend yield of 1.77% with a low payout ratio indicating sustainable shareholder returns

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • PE ratio (17.45) well below industry average (29.16) suggesting relative undervaluation
  • stable beta (0.447) indicating low market volatility exposure
  • consistent dividend policy and cash generation underpinning long‑term shareholder value

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth1.60%
Profit Margin16.38%
P/E Ratio17.4
ROE13.07%
ROA6.53%
Debt/Equity44.15
P/B Ratio2.2
Op. Cash Flow$244.2M
Free Cash Flow$100.8M
Industry P/E29.2

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI42.9
Support$104.89
Resistance$120.39
MA 20$113.78
MA 50$111.32
MA 200$112.72
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.18

Valuation

Fair Value$34.78
Target Price$145.40
Upside/Downside32.28%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.77%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.85
Volatility35.07%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.