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MGRC:NASDAQMcGrath RentCorp Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-03 - not real-time

$106.70

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

McGrath RentCorp (MGRC) is trading at $106.7, which sits below its 20‑day ($111.4), 50‑day ($112.2) and 200‑day ($112.2) simple moving averages, signaling a bearish technical backdrop. The RSI of 36 and a bearish MACD histogram further underscore short‑term momentum weakness, while the price is hovering just above the identified support level of $104.98 and well under the resistance of $116.77. Volatility is elevated at 32.5% over the past 30 days, and beta around 0.8 suggests the stock moves less than the market but still carries noticeable systematic risk.
Fundamentally, MGRC trades at a forward PE of 15.2 versus an industry average of 30.1, indicating relative cheapness, and its dividend yield of 1.82% is supported by a modest payout ratio of 31%. However, the DCF‑derived fair value of $35.9 is far below the current price, highlighting a potential overvaluation gap, and the company’s net‑debt position ($546 M debt vs $2.4 M cash) raises liquidity concerns despite solid operating cash flow and a 13% ROE.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price below key moving averages and bearish MACD
  • High short‑term volatility
  • DCF fair value far below market price

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Attractive forward PE relative to industry
  • Sustainable dividend with low payout ratio
  • Strong operating cash flow offsetting debt load

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Potential price correction toward intrinsic value
  • Stable dividend income
  • Modest earnings growth and solid ROE

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth1.60%
Profit Margin16.38%
P/E Ratio16.9
ROE13.07%
ROA6.53%
Debt/Equity44.15
P/B Ratio2.1
Op. Cash Flow$244.2M
Free Cash Flow$100.8M
Industry P/E30.1

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI36.2
Support$104.98
Resistance$116.77
MA 20$111.42
MA 50$112.17
MA 200$112.21
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index92.57

Valuation

Fair Value$35.92
Target Price$145.40
Upside/Downside36.27%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.82%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.80
Volatility32.50%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.