MG:NYSEMistras Group Inc Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-23 - not real-time
$17.28
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Mistras Group delivered a solid Q1 performance, with revenue rising 4.6% year‑over‑year to $731 million and GAAP net income turning positive at $2.4 million, translating to earnings per diluted share of $0.07 that beat expectations by 75%. Management highlighted margin improvement, adding 120 basis points to gross margin and expanding operating margin to just under 3%, while reaffirming 2026 guidance of $730‑$750 million revenue and $91‑$93 million adjusted EBITDA.
On the technical side, the stock trades at $17.28, sitting just below the 20‑day SMA of $17.91 but above the 50‑day SMA of $16.74, indicating a bullish trend supported by a 20‑day SMA crossover. RSI is neutral at 48.7, MACD is currently bearish, and the price is above the identified support of $15.54 with resistance near $19.56. Volatility is elevated at roughly 36% over the past 30 days and beta exceeds 1.2, suggesting heightened price swings, yet the Fear & Greed Index reads “Extreme Greed,” implying strong market appetite. Valuation metrics show a trailing P/E of 24.7 versus an industry average of 29.7 and a forward P/E of 13.9, pointing to a relative discount and an upside potential of about 21.5%.
On the technical side, the stock trades at $17.28, sitting just below the 20‑day SMA of $17.91 but above the 50‑day SMA of $16.74, indicating a bullish trend supported by a 20‑day SMA crossover. RSI is neutral at 48.7, MACD is currently bearish, and the price is above the identified support of $15.54 with resistance near $19.56. Volatility is elevated at roughly 36% over the past 30 days and beta exceeds 1.2, suggesting heightened price swings, yet the Fear & Greed Index reads “Extreme Greed,” implying strong market appetite. Valuation metrics show a trailing P/E of 24.7 versus an industry average of 29.7 and a forward P/E of 13.9, pointing to a relative discount and an upside potential of about 21.5%.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Q1 earnings beat and margin expansion
- Price near short‑term support with bullish SMA alignment
- MACD bearish divergence adding caution
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Revenue growth and favorable forward P/E of 13.9
- Reaffirmed guidance with upside of ~21.5%
- Diversified exposure to aerospace, defense, and renewable energy
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- High leverage (debt‑to‑equity >100%)
- Cyclical exposure to industrial services
- Strong cash flow generation but limited dividend yield
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth4.60%
Profit Margin3.06%
P/E Ratio24.7
ROE10.38%
ROA6.33%
Debt/Equity107.46
P/B Ratio2.4
Op. Cash Flow$30.1M
Free Cash Flow$2.9M
Industry P/E29.7
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI48.7
Support$15.54
Resistance$19.56
MA 20$17.91
MA 50$16.74
MA 200$13.05
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.61
Valuation
Target Price$21.00
Upside/Downside21.53%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Risk Assessment
Beta1.25
Volatility35.96%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.