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MFIN:NASDAQMedallion Financial Corp. Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-17 - not real-time

$9.42

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Medallion Financial Corp. trades at $9.42, just below its 50‑day SMA (9.47) and near the computed resistance of $9.44, while the 20‑day SMA (8.68) sits well underneath, indicating a short‑term bearish bias despite a bullish MACD histogram. Fundamentally, the stock appears deeply undervalued with a trailing P/E of 5.3 versus an industry average of 17.5, a P/B of 0.52 and a price‑to‑sales of 0.63, all pointing to a potential value play. Revenue growth of 18.6% and strong operating margins (48% operating, 74% gross) support the earnings narrative, yet the balance sheet is strained: a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 473 and total debt of $2.4 B dwarf the $0.2 B cash cushion, raising solvency concerns. The dividend yield of 5.1% with a modest 26% payout ratio looks sustainable on current cash flow, but the high leverage and a 30‑day volatility of 40% add to the risk profile. In this context, the stock offers an attractive entry point for value‑oriented investors, but the bearish technical stance and leverage suggest caution, especially in the near term.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Price hovering just below resistance with decreasing volume
  • Bearish SMA alignment and high short‑term volatility
  • Attractive dividend yield offsets downside risk

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Significant valuation discount relative to peers
  • Strong revenue growth and high operating margins
  • Sustainable dividend and low payout ratio

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Elevated debt load and leverage risk
  • Potential for continued earnings growth if debt is managed
  • Stable dividend income supporting total return

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth18.60%
Profit Margin12.18%
P/E Ratio5.3
ROE11.69%
ROA3.83%
Debt/Equity472.94
P/B Ratio0.5
Op. Cash Flow$126.3M
Free Cash Flow$10.3M
Industry P/E17.5

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI59.3
Support$7.85
Resistance$9.44
MA 20$8.68
MA 50$9.47
MA 200$9.95
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.39

Valuation

Target Price$11.75
Upside/Downside24.73%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield5.11%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.04
Volatility40.04%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.