MFIN:NASDAQMedallion Financial Corp. Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-17 - not real-time
$9.42
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Medallion Financial Corp. trades at $9.42, just below its 50‑day SMA (9.47) and near the computed resistance of $9.44, while the 20‑day SMA (8.68) sits well underneath, indicating a short‑term bearish bias despite a bullish MACD histogram. Fundamentally, the stock appears deeply undervalued with a trailing P/E of 5.3 versus an industry average of 17.5, a P/B of 0.52 and a price‑to‑sales of 0.63, all pointing to a potential value play. Revenue growth of 18.6% and strong operating margins (48% operating, 74% gross) support the earnings narrative, yet the balance sheet is strained: a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 473 and total debt of $2.4 B dwarf the $0.2 B cash cushion, raising solvency concerns. The dividend yield of 5.1% with a modest 26% payout ratio looks sustainable on current cash flow, but the high leverage and a 30‑day volatility of 40% add to the risk profile. In this context, the stock offers an attractive entry point for value‑oriented investors, but the bearish technical stance and leverage suggest caution, especially in the near term.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Price hovering just below resistance with decreasing volume
- Bearish SMA alignment and high short‑term volatility
- Attractive dividend yield offsets downside risk
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Significant valuation discount relative to peers
- Strong revenue growth and high operating margins
- Sustainable dividend and low payout ratio
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Elevated debt load and leverage risk
- Potential for continued earnings growth if debt is managed
- Stable dividend income supporting total return
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth18.60%
Profit Margin12.18%
P/E Ratio5.3
ROE11.69%
ROA3.83%
Debt/Equity472.94
P/B Ratio0.5
Op. Cash Flow$126.3M
Free Cash Flow$10.3M
Industry P/E17.5
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI59.3
Support$7.85
Resistance$9.44
MA 20$8.68
MA 50$9.47
MA 200$9.95
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.39
Valuation
Target Price$11.75
Upside/Downside24.73%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield5.11%
Risk Assessment
Beta1.04
Volatility40.04%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.