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MFG:ASXMagellan Financial Group Ltd Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-21 - not real-time

A$8.64

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Magellan’s share price sits below its 20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages, and the MACD line remains under its signal, signalling a short‑term bearish bias despite a modestly low RSI that hints at limited upside momentum. Valuation metrics show a price‑to‑earnings ratio well under the industry average and a discounted cash‑flow estimate that aligns closely with the current market price, suggesting the stock is modestly undervalued. Dividend yield remains exceptionally high at over 7 % with a payout ratio below 70 %, supported by strong operating cash flow and a low debt profile.
Recent material news – analysts cutting revenue forecasts, the closure of a global equities fund and the outsourcing of flagship fund management – have added pressure on the share price, contributing to heightened volatility and a bearish technical outlook in the near term.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish technical indicators (price below SMA, negative MACD)
  • Recent fund closures and management changes
  • High dividend yield providing income support

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Valuation advantage versus industry peers
  • Strong cash flow and low leverage
  • Stabilising dividend income despite revenue slowdown

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued relative to earnings multiples
  • Sustainable dividend with solid balance sheet
  • Low beta indicating limited market volatility exposure

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-31.60%
Profit Margin53.28%
P/E Ratio10.7
ROE14.07%
ROA8.45%
Debt/Equity0.38
P/B Ratio1.5
Op. Cash FlowA$144.8M
Free Cash FlowA$116.2M
Industry P/E16.7

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI39.7
SupportA$8.38
ResistanceA$10.50
MA 20A$9.20
MA 50A$9.57
MA 200A$9.67
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index89.79

Valuation

Fair ValueA$8.63
Target PriceA$9.32
Upside/Downside7.84%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield7.57%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.59
Volatility40.89%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.