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MERC:NASDAQMercer International Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-29 - not real-time

$0.96

Latest Price

8/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

Mercer International is trading well below its historical highs and the recent price action reflects a bearish technical backdrop, with the short‑term moving average sitting beneath the longer‑term average and momentum indicators stuck in a neutral zone. Liquidity initiatives and cost‑saving measures highlighted in the latest earnings call are attempting to shore up a balance sheet weighed down by substantial debt and negative cash flows. The dividend yield appears attractive, but the underlying earnings are deeply negative, raising serious questions about the sustainability of the payout. High beta and near‑90% 30‑day volatility signal that the stock is highly sensitive to market swings, while the current volume profile suggests limited trading depth. Overall, the combination of weak fundamentals, aggressive dividend, and elevated risk metrics point to a cautious stance pending clearer signs of a turnaround.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish technical cross‑overs
  • Negative earnings and cash flow
  • High short‑term volatility

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Ongoing cost‑reduction program
  • Uncertain path to profitability
  • Elevated debt burden

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 4/10

Key Factors

  • Potential upside from strategic growth initiatives
  • Risk of continued earnings erosion
  • Dependence on commodity cycles in the pulp market

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-3.50%
Profit Margin-28.51%
P/E Ratio-1.2
ROE-244.34%
ROA-6.38%
P/B Ratio-11.6
Op. Cash Flow$-74090000
Free Cash Flow$-99709752

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI43.5
Support$0.75
Resistance$1.18
MA 20$0.98
MA 50$1.13
MA 200$2.00
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index94.09

Valuation

Target Price$1.00
Upside/Downside4.11%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield16.04%

Risk Assessment

Beta2.03
Volatility93.24%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskHigh

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.