MDT:NYSEMedtronic plc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-10 - not real-time
$81.98
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Medtronic (MDT) trades at $81.98, notably above its DCF‑derived fair value of $63.76, implying a ~28% premium despite a modest 20% upside/downside estimate. The stock benefits from a strong dividend yield of 3.5% and a low beta (~0.3), but recent earnings guidance fell short of expectations, triggering pre‑market weakness and reinforcing a bearish technical backdrop (price below the 200‑day SMA, RSI at 59, and a bearish trend flag).
Fundamentally, MDT posted 10% revenue growth, robust gross (65%) and operating (21%) margins, and a healthy operating cash flow, while the forward PE of 12.8 suggests valuation compression ahead of peers (industry PE 24.9). The announced acquisition of SPR Therapeutics and the CE‑mark for the Stealth AXiS system add growth catalysts, though the high payout ratio (76%) and zero free cash flow raise modest concerns about dividend sustainability.
Fundamentally, MDT posted 10% revenue growth, robust gross (65%) and operating (21%) margins, and a healthy operating cash flow, while the forward PE of 12.8 suggests valuation compression ahead of peers (industry PE 24.9). The announced acquisition of SPR Therapeutics and the CE‑mark for the Stealth AXiS system add growth catalysts, though the high payout ratio (76%) and zero free cash flow raise modest concerns about dividend sustainability.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Earnings guidance miss creating price pressure
- Bearish technical trend (price below 200‑day SMA)
- Attractive dividend yield cushioning downside
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- 10% revenue growth and strong margin profile
- Forward PE compression to 12.8 indicating value upside
- Strategic acquisition of SPR Therapeutics expanding pain‑intervention franchise
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Diversified medical‑device portfolio across cardiovascular, neuroscience, and diabetes
- Stable, high‑yield dividend supporting total return
- Low market beta and solid cash‑flow generation offsetting regulatory and execution risks
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth9.90%
Profit Margin13.20%
P/E Ratio22.0
ROE9.93%
Debt/Equity57.06
P/B Ratio2.1
Op. Cash Flow$7.3B
Industry P/E24.9
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI59.2
Support$73.31
Resistance$82.83
MA 20$77.59
MA 50$81.07
MA 200$92.35
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index83.89
Valuation
Fair Value$63.76
Target Price$98.58
Upside/Downside20.25%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.51%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.29
Volatility32.46%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.