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MDT:NYSEMedtronic plc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-07-09 - not real-time

$82.01

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Medtronic (MDT) trades at a trailing P/E of ~22.5 and a forward P/E of ~12.8, indicating the market expects earnings acceleration. The stock yields a robust 3.44% dividend with a payout ratio near 76%, supported by free cash flow of $4.6 bn. Technicals are mildly bullish: price sits above the 20‑day SMA (≈80.7) and 50‑day SMA (≈79.0), MACD shows a bullish crossover, and RSI is neutral at ~55. Volatility is elevated (30‑day ~35%) but beta is low (~0.26), suggesting price swings are more company‑specific than market‑driven. The current price of $82.01 is well above the DCF fair value of $56, yet analysts maintain a “Buy” consensus with a median target of $98.5, implying perceived upside of roughly 20%. Recent material news highlights strategic moves: an expanded partnership with Retia Medical on cardiac output monitoring, acquisition of SPR Therapeutics to strengthen pain‑intervention offerings, and positioning in robotics, all of which could fuel top‑line growth. Revenue grew 9.9% YoY to $36.4 bn and operating margins remain healthy at 22%, while debt‑to‑equity sits at 58%, a manageable level given strong cash generation. The stock sits near its technical support at $77.6 and faces resistance around $86, providing a near‑term price corridor. Overall, MDT blends solid dividend income with growth catalysts, but valuation appears stretched relative to intrinsic estimates.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price above short‑term moving averages and bullish MACD signal
  • Technical support at $77.6 and resistance near $86 limiting near‑term upside
  • Elevated short‑term volatility despite low beta

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Analyst consensus “Buy” with median target $98.5 indicating ~20% upside
  • Forward earnings growth (forward EPS ~6.4) and revenue expansion
  • Strong dividend yield and cash flow supporting shareholder returns

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Strategic acquisitions (SPR Therapeutics) and partnerships expanding product portfolio
  • Sustained dividend policy with reasonable payout ratio
  • Long‑term secular demand for medical device and digital health solutions

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth9.90%
Profit Margin13.20%
P/E Ratio22.5
ROE9.84%
ROA4.92%
Debt/Equity58.21
P/B Ratio2.1
Op. Cash Flow$7.3B
Free Cash Flow$4.6B
Industry P/E29.2

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI54.9
Support$77.62
Resistance$85.99
MA 20$80.70
MA 50$79.03
MA 200$91.16
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.73

Valuation

Fair Value$56.05
Target Price$97.73
Upside/Downside19.17%
GradeFair
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield3.44%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.26
Volatility35.13%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.