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MDKA:IDXPT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk Analysis

Data as of 2026-08-26 - not real-time

IDR 3,120.00

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

At IDR 3,120.00, PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk shows no decisive moving-average alignment, leaving the trend neutral. Over a rolling month the price has gained 18.2%. With RSI at 65.9 the momentum picture is approaching overbought, alongside a bullish MACD signal. The recent range runs from support at IDR 2,550.00 up to resistance at IDR 3,180.00.
Valuation screens as overvalued, on a P/E of 1752.8 with no clean sector comparison available. Analyst price targets sit 24.9% above the current price. Revenue is growing at 23.5% on a -0.0% profit margin. The 0.42% dividend yield looks stretched against payout coverage.
The composite risk read is 7/10, putting it in elevated territory. With 30-day volatility of 41.2%, a beta of 0.90 and a maximum drawdown of 44.7%, position sizing matters more than entry timing here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 94 on the fear-greed composite.
The horizons line up on hold — conviction 3 out of 10.

Top Market Events

HONG KONG, June 26, 2026 - ACN Newswire - PT Merdeka Gold Resources Tbk 'Merdeka Gold Resources', 'MGR' or the...Merdeka Gold Keeps Pani Gold Mine Expansion on Track as Heap Leach Ramps Up and 12 Mtpa Carbon-in-Leach Project Advances

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 1/10

Key Factors

  • Trading above the 200-day average of 2831.70
  • MACD momentum is positive
  • 30-day price change of +18.2%

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 2/10

Key Factors

  • Dividend yield of 0.42% looks stretched against payout coverage
  • Trading above the 200-day average of 2831.70
  • Analyst targets imply +24.9% versus the current price

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 3/10

Key Factors

  • Dividend yield of 0.42% looks stretched against payout coverage
  • Negative profit margin of -0.0%
  • Analyst targets imply +24.9% versus the current price

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth23.50%
Profit Margin-0.04%
P/E Ratio1752.8
ROE4.48%
ROA3.32%
Debt/Equity76.50
P/B Ratio89142.9
Op. Cash FlowIDR365.5M
Free Cash FlowIDR-348990432

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI65.9
SupportIDR 2,550.00
ResistanceIDR 3,180.00
MA 20IDR 2,861.50
MA 50IDR 2,760.20
MA 200IDR 2,831.70
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index93.84

Valuation

Fair ValueIDR 0.27
Target PriceIDR 3,896.26
Upside/Downside24.88%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield0.42%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.90
Volatility41.23%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskHigh
Currency RiskHigh
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.