We use cookies to analyze site traffic and improve your experience.
By accepting, you consent to the use of analytics cookies.

MCY:NZXMercury NZ Ltd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-25 - not real-time

$101.03

Latest Price

3/10Risk

Risk Level: Low

Executive Summary

Mercury General (MCY) is trading around $101, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA of 98.9 and the 50‑day SMA of 94.2, while still below the 200‑day SMA of 87.6, indicating a sustained bullish bias. Technical indicators – RSI at 58.6 and a bullish MACD histogram – reinforce momentum, with support near $92 and resistance at $103.86. The latest quarter delivered $190.4 M profit and $3.5 EPS, beating consensus estimates and driving a 10.5% year‑over‑year revenue rise to $1.54 B, underscoring strong operating performance. Fundamentally, the stock trades at a PE of 6.66 versus an industry average of 16.75, a price‑to‑book of 2.16, and a price‑to‑sales under 1, suggesting significant value relative to peers. Cash on hand ($1.79 B) comfortably exceeds debt ($0.59 B) with a low debt‑to‑equity of 22.7%, while ROE stands at an impressive 38% and free cash flow exceeds $1.5 B. Dividend sustainability looks solid with a 1.26% yield, an 8% payout ratio, and ample liquidity, and the low beta of 0.52 points to limited market volatility despite a 30‑day volatility of 23.6%.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Price near short‑term resistance at $103.86
  • Recent earnings beat and revenue growth
  • Stable trading volume and bullish technicals

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Significant valuation discount to industry peers
  • Strong cash generation and low leverage
  • High ROE and consistent earnings momentum

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Sustainable dividend with low payout ratio
  • Durable competitive position in auto & property insurance
  • Low beta and solid balance sheet supporting resilience

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth10.50%
Profit Margin13.69%
P/E Ratio6.7
ROE38.08%
ROA7.06%
Debt/Equity22.67
P/B Ratio2.2
Op. Cash Flow$1.5B
Free Cash Flow$1.6B
Industry P/E16.8

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI58.6
Support$92.00
Resistance$103.86
MA 20$98.88
MA 50$94.20
MA 200$87.58
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.64

Valuation

Fair Value$597.27
Target Price$120.00
Upside/Downside18.78%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.26%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.52
Volatility23.62%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.