MCD:NYSEMcDonald's Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-09-08 - not real-time
$255.81
Latest Price
3/10Risk
Risk Level: Low
Executive Summary
The moving-average structure behind McDonald's Corporation is bearish at $255.81, with short-term averages lagging the long-term ones. Across the trailing 30 sessions it lost 5.5%. With RSI at 34.5 the momentum picture is approaching oversold, alongside a bearish MACD signal. Watch $254.33 as support and $278.37 as the nearer resistance level.
The shares look fair at 20.8 times earnings, though no sector average was available for comparison. The average analyst target implies 23.3% above today's level. Revenue is growing at 3.7% on a 31.7% profit margin. The 2.91% dividend yield looks covered by current payout levels.
The composite risk read is 3/10, putting it in low territory. With 30-day volatility of 18.8%, a beta of -0.02 and a maximum drawdown of 25.0%, the drawdown profile is forgiving relative to most of the market. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 93 on the fear-greed composite.
Timeframes disagree: the short-term read is sell while the long-term read is hold, conviction 3 out of 10.
The shares look fair at 20.8 times earnings, though no sector average was available for comparison. The average analyst target implies 23.3% above today's level. Revenue is growing at 3.7% on a 31.7% profit margin. The 2.91% dividend yield looks covered by current payout levels.
The composite risk read is 3/10, putting it in low territory. With 30-day volatility of 18.8%, a beta of -0.02 and a maximum drawdown of 25.0%, the drawdown profile is forgiving relative to most of the market. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 93 on the fear-greed composite.
Timeframes disagree: the short-term read is sell while the long-term read is hold, conviction 3 out of 10.
Top Market Events
Matrix Asset Advisors, an asset management company, released its Q2 2026 investor letter.McDonald's has lost ground all year, and the bear case carries real teeth, but a combination of loyalty scale, a new U.During the August 11 episode of CNBC’s Mad Money, host Jim Cramer discussed McDonald
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 4/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked below long-term ones
- Trading below the 200-day average of 295.70
- MACD momentum is negative
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 2/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked below long-term ones
- Trading below the 200-day average of 295.70
- Analyst targets imply +23.3% versus the current price
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 3/10
Key Factors
- Analyst targets imply +23.3% versus the current price
- Profit margin of 31.7% is healthy
- P/E ratio of 20.8
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth3.70%
Profit Margin31.72%
P/E Ratio20.8
ROA13.25%
P/B Ratio-176.9
Op. Cash Flow$11.3B
Free Cash Flow$6.3B
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI34.5
Support$254.33
Resistance$278.37
MA 20$266.22
MA 50$269.19
MA 200$295.70
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index93.36
Valuation
Fair Value$55.13
Target Price$315.39
Upside/Downside23.29%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.91%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.02
Volatility18.82%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.