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MBT:PSEMetropolitan Bank & Trust Co. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-15 - not real-time

IDR 113.00

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Martina Berto’s shares are trading well below their short‑term moving averages, with the price sitting under the 20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day SMAs, indicating a bearish technical stance. The RSI is in the lower‑30s, suggesting the stock is oversold, while the MACD line remains beneath its signal, reinforcing downside momentum.
Fundamentally, the company posts negative profit margins and a trailing EPS in the red, coupled with a very high debt load relative to equity, which raises concerns about earnings sustainability. However, the price‑to‑book ratio is markedly low and the discounted cash‑flow model points to a fair value far above the current market price, hinting at a potential valuation disconnect. The volatility metric is unusually high and trading volume has been declining, which together amplify short‑term price swings and liquidity risk.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 4/10

Key Factors

  • price below key moving averages
  • bearish MACD crossover
  • declining volume and high short‑term volatility

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • significant valuation gap to DCF fair value
  • oversold technical indicators may trigger a rebound
  • stable consumer‑defensive sector backdrop

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • persistent profitability challenges and high debt
  • potential upside if earnings turnaround materializes
  • moderate exposure to Indonesian market and currency dynamics

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth9.80%
Profit Margin-6.04%
ROE-6.70%
ROA0.12%
Debt/Equity45.17
P/B Ratio0.3
Op. Cash FlowIDR15.0B
Free Cash FlowIDR26.5B

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI34.4
SupportIDR 110.00
ResistanceIDR 169.00
MA 20IDR 136.00
MA 50IDR 155.14
MA 200IDR 143.74
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88

Valuation

Fair ValueIDR 371.25
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue

Risk Assessment

Beta0.62
Volatility125.59%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskHigh

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.