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MB:MILMediobanca - Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A. Analysis

Data as of 2026-07-20 - not real-time

€27.06

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Mediobanca is trading at €27.06, comfortably above its 20‑day (€26.60), 50‑day (€24.32) and 200‑day (€19.20) simple moving averages, signalling a sustained bullish bias. The RSI sits at 64.9, indicating momentum is strong but not yet overbought, while the MACD histogram has turned negative and the line sits below the signal, hinting at a short‑term bearish pressure near the resistance zone of €27.81. Volatility remains elevated at roughly 30% over the past 30 days, yet the stock’s beta of 0.45 suggests it is less sensitive to broader market swings, offering a defensive edge in a volatile environment. On the valuation side, the forward PE of 15.0 is modestly below the current PE of 18.4, and the dividend yield of 4.67% with a 78% payout ratio provides an attractive income component, though growth is muted with revenue expanding only 0.5% year‑over‑year. Compared with the industry average PE of 17.7, the stock appears fairly priced, while analyst consensus (median target €27.15) aligns closely with the current level, implying limited upside but solid downside protection at the identified support of €25.65. The combination of a strong dividend, low beta, and price stability above key moving averages supports a value‑oriented, income‑focused investment thesis.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near resistance at €27.81
  • Bearish MACD crossover
  • Elevated RSI approaching overbought levels

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Price above all major SMAs indicating trend strength
  • Attractive dividend yield of 4.67% with sustainable payout
  • Fair valuation relative to peers and analyst median target

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Low beta (0.45) providing defensive characteristics
  • Consistent income generation through dividends
  • Value orientation with modest growth and solid balance‑sheet liquidity

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth0.50%
Profit Margin39.08%
P/E Ratio18.4
P/B Ratio1.9
Industry P/E17.7

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI64.9
Support€25.65
Resistance€27.81
MA 20€26.60
MA 50€24.32
MA 200€19.20
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index88.14

Valuation

Target Price€25.33
Upside/Downside-6.41%
GradeFair
TypeValue
Dividend Yield4.67%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.45
Volatility21.01%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.