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MATX:NYSEMatson, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-16 - not real-time

$170.50

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Matson, Inc. (MATX) is trading around $170.5, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA of $164.8 and 50‑day SMA of $162.8, with price action hugging the bullish side of the 200‑day SMA at $125.0. The RSI sits at 60.6, indicating strength without being overbought, while the MACD histogram is positive (0.71) and the MACD line sits above its signal, reinforcing a bullish momentum. Volume trends are decreasing, and the beta of roughly 1.73 combined with a 30‑day volatility of 33% suggest the stock is more volatile than the market. Support is identified near $152.1 and resistance near $176.9, placing the current price in the upper half of its range. The technical picture is solidly bullish, but the high beta and volatility flag heightened price swings.
Fundamentally, MATX trades at a forward PE of 11.5 versus an industry average of 30.9, and its price‑to‑book of 1.88 is modest, yet the DCF‑derived fair value of $70.0 is far below the market price, implying the stock is overvalued by traditional discounted cash flow metrics. The company delivers a 0.84% dividend with a low payout ratio of 10%, supporting sustainability. Operating margins are healthy (operating margin 15.8%, profit margin 13.3%) and cash flow generation is solid, though revenue has slipped 4.3% YoY. Recent news highlights a strategic partnership with BNSF Railway and War‑Lok to enhance cargo security, which could bolster intermodal volumes and customer confidence. Overall, the stock blends strong short‑term technicals with a valuation gap that tempers enthusiasm.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish technical indicators (price above SMAs, positive MACD)
  • Overvaluation relative to DCF fair value
  • High beta and recent decline in volume

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Strategic partnership enhancing intermodal security and volume
  • Low forward PE versus industry peers
  • Strong operating margins and sustainable dividend

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Stable demand for island logistics and U.S. military contracts
  • Persistent valuation premium over DCF estimates
  • Exposure to cyclical marine shipping dynamics

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-4.30%
Profit Margin13.30%
P/E Ratio12.3
ROE16.44%
ROA6.46%
Debt/Equity26.35
P/B Ratio1.9
Op. Cash Flow$547.1M
Free Cash Flow$203.6M
Industry P/E30.9

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI60.6
Support$152.10
Resistance$176.93
MA 20$164.80
MA 50$162.84
MA 200$125.06
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index88.98

Valuation

Fair Value$70.05
Target Price$215.00
Upside/Downside26.10%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield0.84%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.73
Volatility32.94%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.