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MATV:NYSEMativ Holdings, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-25 - not real-time

$8.74

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Mativ Holdings trades at $8.74, well below its DCF‑derived fair value of $16.86, indicating a substantial discount of roughly 140% upside. The stock’s low trailing PE of 6.2, sub‑1.0 price‑to‑book ratio, and a dividend yield of 4.58% with a modest 28% payout ratio suggest strong value and income characteristics. Recent earnings reports show mixed signals – management highlighted margin expansion and improved cash flow, yet the company posted an $11.7 million loss for Q1, underscoring earnings volatility. Technical indicators are neutral: the 20‑day SMA (8.93) sits just above the 50‑day SMA (8.89), price remains below both averages, RSI is near 47, and the MACD histogram is slightly negative, placing the stock near its support level of $7.86 and below the $9.97 resistance. Risk factors include a high beta of 1.55 and 30‑day volatility of 48%, reflecting sensitivity to market swings. Despite these headwinds, the stable volume profile and solid free cash flow of $149.6 million support the dividend’s sustainability. The overall picture points to an undervalued, dividend‑rich stock with upside potential if earnings stabilize and technical momentum improves.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price hovering near support with bearish MACD
  • Earnings volatility from Q1 loss
  • High beta and volatility increase near‑term uncertainty

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Significant discount to DCF fair value
  • Attractive dividend yield and low payout ratio
  • Improving cash flow and margin expansion initiatives

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Structural demand for specialty chemicals and filtration products
  • Sustained dividend income enhancing total return
  • Long‑run upside as market re‑rates the business toward its fair value

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-1.10%
Profit Margin3.85%
P/E Ratio6.2
ROE16.97%
ROA2.10%
Debt/Equity232.67
P/B Ratio1.0
Op. Cash Flow$150.7M
Free Cash Flow$149.6M

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI47.0
Support$7.86
Resistance$9.97
MA 20$8.93
MA 50$8.89
MA 200$11.17
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.54

Valuation

Fair Value$16.86
Target Price$21.00
Upside/Downside140.27%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield4.58%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.55
Volatility48.58%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.