MAGN:RUSMMK Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-29 - not real-time
$11.38
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Magnera trades at $11.38, well below its DCF‑derived fair value of $27.89, implying roughly a 27% upside. The forward P/E of 6.76 and a price‑to‑book of 0.39 reinforce a deep discount relative to fundamentals, while the price‑to‑sales of 0.12 underscores the valuation compression. However, the company’s fundamentals are weak: a negative profit margin, ROE of –10%, and a debt‑to‑equity ratio near 189 signal financial strain. On the technical side, the stock sits above its 20‑day (10.70) and 50‑day (10.23) SMAs but below the 200‑day SMA (11.79), the MACD is bullish, and RSI is neutral at 59, suggesting limited near‑term momentum. Volume is trending down, and the 30‑day volatility is high at 57% with a historic drawdown of 44%, highlighting a volatile trading environment.
Given the defensive consumer sector backdrop, the lack of dividend, and the high beta of 1.63, investors face elevated market risk despite the sector’s relative stability. The combination of undervaluation, weak earnings, and substantial leverage points to a cautious stance, with a preference for a medium‑to‑long‑term buy if the balance sheet can be stabilized, while short‑term exposure should be limited pending clearer earnings momentum.
Given the defensive consumer sector backdrop, the lack of dividend, and the high beta of 1.63, investors face elevated market risk despite the sector’s relative stability. The combination of undervaluation, weak earnings, and substantial leverage points to a cautious stance, with a preference for a medium‑to‑long‑term buy if the balance sheet can be stabilized, while short‑term exposure should be limited pending clearer earnings momentum.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price near support with bullish MACD but decreasing volume
- High volatility and beta increase market risk
- Negative earnings and weak cash conversion
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Significant valuation gap to DCF fair value
- Defensive consumer sector provides stability
- Potential upside of ~27% if earnings improve
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Undervalued metrics (P/E, P/B, P/S) suggest long‑run upside
- Opportunity for balance‑sheet deleveraging
- Defensive product mix supports resilience over economic cycles
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-3.40%
Profit Margin-3.37%
P/E Ratio6.8
ROE-10.32%
ROA1.98%
Debt/Equity188.55
P/B Ratio0.4
Op. Cash Flow$185.0M
Free Cash Flow$201.0M
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI59.4
Support$9.71
Resistance$12.92
MA 20$10.70
MA 50$10.23
MA 200$11.79
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index93.14
Valuation
Fair Value$27.89
Target Price$14.50
Upside/Downside27.42%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Risk Assessment
Beta1.63
Volatility57.16%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.