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MAGN:RUSMMK Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-29 - not real-time

$11.38

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Magnera trades at $11.38, well below its DCF‑derived fair value of $27.89, implying roughly a 27% upside. The forward P/E of 6.76 and a price‑to‑book of 0.39 reinforce a deep discount relative to fundamentals, while the price‑to‑sales of 0.12 underscores the valuation compression. However, the company’s fundamentals are weak: a negative profit margin, ROE of –10%, and a debt‑to‑equity ratio near 189 signal financial strain. On the technical side, the stock sits above its 20‑day (10.70) and 50‑day (10.23) SMAs but below the 200‑day SMA (11.79), the MACD is bullish, and RSI is neutral at 59, suggesting limited near‑term momentum. Volume is trending down, and the 30‑day volatility is high at 57% with a historic drawdown of 44%, highlighting a volatile trading environment.
Given the defensive consumer sector backdrop, the lack of dividend, and the high beta of 1.63, investors face elevated market risk despite the sector’s relative stability. The combination of undervaluation, weak earnings, and substantial leverage points to a cautious stance, with a preference for a medium‑to‑long‑term buy if the balance sheet can be stabilized, while short‑term exposure should be limited pending clearer earnings momentum.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near support with bullish MACD but decreasing volume
  • High volatility and beta increase market risk
  • Negative earnings and weak cash conversion

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Significant valuation gap to DCF fair value
  • Defensive consumer sector provides stability
  • Potential upside of ~27% if earnings improve

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued metrics (P/E, P/B, P/S) suggest long‑run upside
  • Opportunity for balance‑sheet deleveraging
  • Defensive product mix supports resilience over economic cycles

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-3.40%
Profit Margin-3.37%
P/E Ratio6.8
ROE-10.32%
ROA1.98%
Debt/Equity188.55
P/B Ratio0.4
Op. Cash Flow$185.0M
Free Cash Flow$201.0M

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI59.4
Support$9.71
Resistance$12.92
MA 20$10.70
MA 50$10.23
MA 200$11.79
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index93.14

Valuation

Fair Value$27.89
Target Price$14.50
Upside/Downside27.42%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue

Risk Assessment

Beta1.63
Volatility57.16%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.