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LULU:NASDAQlululemon athletica inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-14 - not real-time

$118.77

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Lululemon is trading at $118.77, well below its 30‑day DCF fair value of $153.58, implying roughly a 14% upside. The stock sits just above the computed support of $109.36 and below the 20‑day SMA of $124.04, with a bearish trend but a bullish MACD histogram (+0.22) and an RSI of 38.7 suggesting it may be oversold. Fundamentally, the company delivers strong profitability – 13% net margin, 55.7% gross margin, and a 32% ROE – and maintains a low PE of 9.6, yet EPS fell to $1.69 in Q1 2026 and the sales outlook was weak, prompting a 10% post‑earnings price drop.
Growth drivers include a new market entry in Greece and a solid 4.3% revenue growth year‑over‑year, but risks are heightened by a high 30‑day volatility of 43.7%, a beta of 1.6, and a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 44%, all set against a consumer‑cyclical backdrop and a recent earnings miss.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Weak Q1 earnings outlook and EPS decline
  • Price hovering near support with bearish trend
  • Elevated volatility and high beta increasing downside risk

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued relative to DCF fair value
  • Strong margins and ROE supporting recovery
  • Geographic expansion (e.g., Greece) adding growth potential

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Robust brand positioning and high profitability
  • Sustained revenue growth and expanding international footprint
  • Attractive valuation metrics offering upside over multiple years

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth4.30%
Profit Margin13.03%
P/E Ratio9.6
ROE32.03%
ROA16.05%
Debt/Equity44.26
P/B Ratio2.8
Op. Cash Flow$1.9B
Free Cash Flow$1.1B

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI38.7
Support$109.36
Resistance$136.14
MA 20$124.04
MA 50$137.65
MA 200$169.18
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.86

Valuation

Fair Value$153.58
Target Price$135.74
Upside/Downside14.28%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend

Risk Assessment

Beta1.61
Volatility43.73%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.