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LU:NYSELufax Holding Ltd Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-12 - not real-time

$1.33

Latest Price

8/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

Technical outlook: Lufax (LU) is trading at $1.33, well below its 20‑day ($1.59), 50‑day ($1.79) and 200‑day ($2.56) simple moving averages, with a bearish MACD (-0.14) and an RSI of 18.8 indicating oversold conditions. The price sits just above the identified support level of $1.29 and faces resistance near $1.92, while 30‑day volatility is high at ~40% and beta exceeds 1.5, suggesting amplified market swings.
Fundamental & risk backdrop: The company reports a 19.5% YoY revenue decline, negative profit margin (-6.99%), and a staggering debt‑to‑equity ratio of 86, underscoring financial strain despite a low forward PE (~4.9) and ultra‑cheap price‑to‑book (0.10). Compounding the weakness, a securities class‑action lawsuit stemming from the removal of its auditor and alleged undisclosed related‑party transactions has triggered a ~14% price drop, elevating regulatory and legal risk.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish technical indicators and proximity to support
  • Ongoing securities class‑action lawsuit
  • High leverage and negative earnings

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Potential resolution of legal matters
  • Extremely low valuation multiples offering upside if fundamentals improve
  • Continued volatility and debt burden

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Value‑oriented pricing may attract contrarian investors
  • Uncertainty around Chinese regulatory environment
  • Need for sustainable earnings turnaround and balance‑sheet deleveraging

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-19.50%
Profit Margin-6.99%
P/E Ratio4.9
ROE-2.07%
ROA3.06%
Debt/Equity86.34
P/B Ratio0.1
Op. Cash Flow$12.5B
Free Cash Flow$9.5B
Industry P/E16.8

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI18.8
Support$1.29
Resistance$1.92
MA 20$1.59
MA 50$1.79
MA 200$2.56
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index89.86

Valuation

Fair Value$91.16
Target Price$2.78
Upside/Downside109.23%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue

Risk Assessment

Beta1.52
Volatility39.98%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskHigh
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.