LPP:GPWLPP S.A. Analysis

The stock is trading at IDR 1,830, just below the 20‑day SMA (1,896) and the 50‑day SMA (1,844) but above the 200‑day SMA (1,716), indicating a short‑term pull‑back within a longer‑term bullish framework. Volume is on the rise, the RSI sits at 44 % (neutral), while the MACD histogram is negative, signaling lingering bearish momentum. The price is near the identified support of 1,800 and faces resistance around 1,960, providing a clear technical range.
Fundamentally, the company boasts a very low trailing PE of 5.6 and a striking dividend yield of 16.2 % with a payout ratio of 93 %, yet its debt‑to‑equity ratio exceeds 940 % and total debt dwarfs cash reserves, raising concerns about leverage sustainability. Despite a solid free cash flow generation of IDR 1.14 trillion, revenue is contracting at –8.3 % and the price‑to‑book ratio is elevated at 14.9×, suggesting the market may be pricing in the balance‑sheet risk. The DCF model implies a fair value far above the current price, but the “Extreme Greed” market sentiment (fear‑greed index 75.6) and high 30‑day volatility (28 %) add caution to the upside narrative.