LONN:SIXLonza Group AG Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-17 - not real-time
CHF 469.40
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Lonza Group AG is trading at CHF 469.4, well above its DCF‑derived fair value of roughly CHF 96, indicating a material overvaluation. Technicals are bearish: the price sits below the 20‑day (≈CHF 493) and 50‑day (≈CHF 496) SMAs, the 14‑day RSI is around 36, and the MACD histogram is negative, suggesting further downside pressure toward the support level near CHF 466. Volume is decreasing, adding to the short‑term downside bias.
Fundamentally, the company carries a high PE (≈36×) versus the industry average (≈27×) and a negative profit margin, while free cash flow is strongly negative and net debt is substantial. However, the dividend yield of 1.07% with a modest payout ratio (~30%) and a strong analyst consensus (23 analysts, “strong_buy”) point to underlying resilience and potential upside if the valuation gap narrows.
Fundamentally, the company carries a high PE (≈36×) versus the industry average (≈27×) and a negative profit margin, while free cash flow is strongly negative and net debt is substantial. However, the dividend yield of 1.07% with a modest payout ratio (~30%) and a strong analyst consensus (23 analysts, “strong_buy”) point to underlying resilience and potential upside if the valuation gap narrows.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bearish technical indicators (price below SMAs, RSI 36, MACD negative)
- Proximity to near‑term support at CHF 466
- Decreasing volume and high short‑term volatility
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Strong analyst consensus and target median price around CHF 670
- Robust order book in CDMO and biologics segments
- Potential valuation correction from current over‑pricing
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Long‑term secular growth in pharma/biotech outsourcing
- Diversified global footprint reducing geographic concentration risk
- Resilient cash generation capacity despite current free‑cash‑flow deficit
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Profit Margin-4.21%
P/E Ratio36.1
ROE10.48%
ROA4.64%
Debt/Equity58.74
P/B Ratio4.1
Op. Cash FlowCHF1.2B
Free Cash FlowCHF-1798875008
Industry P/E26.7
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI36.2
SupportCHF 466.30
ResistanceCHF 544.20
MA 20CHF 492.97
MA 50CHF 496.44
MA 200CHF 533.24
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index88.52
Valuation
Fair ValueCHF 96.20
Target PriceCHF 669.30
Upside/Downside42.59%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield1.07%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.03
Volatility26.50%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.