LKQ:NASDAQLKQ Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-24 - not real-time
$27.15
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
LKQ is trading at $27.15, well below its 20‑day SMA of $27.83, 50‑day SMA of $28.97 and 200‑day SMA of $30.72, signaling a bearish price environment. The RSI sits at 45, indicating neutral momentum, while the MACD histogram is negative and the signal line is flagged as bearish. Volatility is elevated at roughly 46% over the past 30 days and the beta of 0.89 suggests slightly lower market sensitivity, yet the stock has experienced a steep max drawdown of almost 40% historically.
Fundamentally, the company offers a robust dividend yield of 4.42% with a 60% payout ratio, modest revenue growth of 4.3%, and a forward PE of 8.2, positioning it as a value play. The DCF fair value of $29.29 implies modest upside, but a high debt‑to‑equity ratio (≈81%) and ongoing securities‑fraud litigation related to the Uni‑Select acquisition add notable risk. Recent Q1 results beat revenue expectations and reaffirmed full‑year EPS guidance, providing short‑term earnings stability despite the broader bearish technical backdrop.
Fundamentally, the company offers a robust dividend yield of 4.42% with a 60% payout ratio, modest revenue growth of 4.3%, and a forward PE of 8.2, positioning it as a value play. The DCF fair value of $29.29 implies modest upside, but a high debt‑to‑equity ratio (≈81%) and ongoing securities‑fraud litigation related to the Uni‑Select acquisition add notable risk. Recent Q1 results beat revenue expectations and reaffirmed full‑year EPS guidance, providing short‑term earnings stability despite the broader bearish technical backdrop.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Bearish technical indicators and proximity to support levels
- Elevated volatility and recent legal exposure
- Attractive dividend yield providing income cushion
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Undervalued relative to DCF and low forward PE
- Reaffirmed earnings guidance and solid free cash flow
- Potential price recovery as market sentiment improves
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Sustainable dividend with reasonable payout ratio
- Value-oriented fundamentals in a cyclical recovery window
- Diversified geographic footprint mitigating single‑region risk
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth4.30%
Profit Margin3.75%
P/E Ratio13.6
ROE8.14%
ROA4.32%
Debt/Equity80.68
P/B Ratio1.1
Op. Cash Flow$1.0B
Free Cash Flow$789.8M
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI45.3
Support$23.98
Resistance$32.52
MA 20$27.83
MA 50$28.97
MA 200$30.72
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.61
Valuation
Fair Value$29.29
Target Price$40.81
Upside/Downside50.32%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield4.42%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.89
Volatility45.96%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.