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LINC:NASDAQLincoln Educational Services Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-21 - not real-time

$46.84

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Lincoln Educational Services (LINC) is trading at $46.84, comfortably above its $38.75 support but still below the $53.50 resistance band, with the 20‑day SMA ($45.20) sitting above the 50‑day ($42.18) and 200‑day ($28.38) averages, confirming a bullish trend. The RSI of 56.8 suggests neutral momentum, while the MACD histogram is slightly negative, hinting at short‑term bearish pressure despite the overall bullish backdrop and an increasing volume trend.
Fundamentally, the company posted a robust 22.5% revenue growth and maintains a strong 60% gross margin, yet operating margins are thin at 4.5% and free cash flow remains negative. A high trailing PE of 65 and a price‑to‑book of 7.4 signal that the market is pricing in strong growth expectations, but the debt‑to‑equity ratio above 100% and a recent expansion of the revolving credit facility to $125 million underscore leverage concerns. The DCF‑derived fair value of $45.67 implies a modest 9% upside, while the Fear‑Greed Index at 91.5 reflects extreme market optimism.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish SMA alignment and price above support
  • Strong revenue growth and high gross margin
  • Increasing trading volume indicating market interest

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Valuation premium relative to DCF fair value
  • High leverage and negative free cash flow
  • Potential for continued earnings expansion

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Sustainable growth in enrollment and program offerings
  • Regulatory environment for for‑profit education
  • Capital structure requiring debt management

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth22.50%
Profit Margin4.11%
P/E Ratio65.1
ROE11.90%
ROA4.40%
Debt/Equity103.88
P/B Ratio7.4
Op. Cash Flow$72.3M
Free Cash Flow$-26880250

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI56.8
Support$38.75
Resistance$53.50
MA 20$45.20
MA 50$42.18
MA 200$28.38
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.5

Valuation

Fair Value$45.67
Target Price$51.20
Upside/Downside9.31%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend

Risk Assessment

Beta0.85
Volatility50.28%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.