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LILAK:NASDAQLiberty Latin America Ltd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-19 - not real-time

$7.50

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Liberty Latin America (LILAK) is trading just above its near‑term support of $7.26, with the 20‑day SMA ($8.06) sitting slightly below the 50‑day SMA ($8.21) and virtually equal to the 200‑day SMA ($8.07), indicating a neutral technical stance. RSI at 38 suggests the stock is not overbought, while the MACD histogram remains negative, pointing to lingering bearish momentum. Volume is increasing, yet price action is confined between a support of $7.26 and resistance near $8.78, reinforcing a range‑bound outlook. The 30‑day volatility of roughly 38% and a beta of 0.85 reflect moderate market sensitivity, but the company’s fundamentals are strained: a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 877, negative profit margin and ROE, and a forward PE of 18.3 only modestly above the industry average of 17.2. No dividend is paid, and cash generation is modest relative to the massive debt load. The upcoming Q1 2026 earnings call could provide clarity on whether the positive forward EPS estimate ($0.41) materializes. Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index at 89 signals “Extreme Greed,” which may be inflating price despite the weak fundamentals. Overall, the stock appears caught between technical neutrality and fundamental weakness, with upside limited unless earnings improve and leverage is addressed.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Price near technical support with neutral SMA alignment
  • Bearish MACD and modest RSI indicating limited upside
  • High volatility and upcoming earnings call uncertainty

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 4/10

Key Factors

  • Forward EPS estimate suggests potential earnings recovery
  • Debt load remains a dominant risk factor
  • Range‑bound price action between support and resistance

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 3/10

Key Factors

  • Unsustainable leverage (debt‑to‑equity > 800)
  • Negative profit margins and ROE
  • Fundamental undervaluation despite modest forward PE

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-0.10%
Profit Margin-11.20%
P/E Ratio18.3
ROE-34.89%
ROA1.21%
Debt/Equity877.41
P/B Ratio2.8
Op. Cash Flow$823.5M
Free Cash Flow$321.4M
Industry P/E17.2

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI38.3
Support$7.26
Resistance$8.78
MA 20$8.06
MA 50$8.21
MA 200$8.07
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89

Valuation

Target Price$8.30
Upside/Downside10.74%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue

Risk Assessment

Beta0.85
Volatility38.25%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskHigh
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.