LILA:NASDAQLiberty Latin America Ltd. Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-25 - not real-time
$7.94
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Liberty Latin America trades at $7.94, just above its 20‑day SMA (7.82) but slightly below the 200‑day SMA (7.96), with a neutral RSI of 51 and a bullish MACD histogram (+0.036) indicating modest upside momentum. Volume is on the rise and the 30‑day volatility is elevated at ~48%, while a beta of 0.77 suggests the stock moves less than the market overall.
Fundamentally, the company posted flat revenue and a negative net profit margin (-11%) despite a solid operating margin (14%) and strong free cash flow ($321 M). A massive debt‑to‑equity ratio (~877) and a net‑debt position far exceeding cash raise solvency concerns, yet the forward PE of 11 is well below the industry average of 17, implying relative undervaluation. Recent material news highlighted a $500 M preferred‑stock distribution with a 9% dividend and resumed share repurchases, underscoring management’s confidence in cash‑flow generation. These mixed signals suggest a short‑term upside potential but significant long‑term financial headwinds.
Fundamentally, the company posted flat revenue and a negative net profit margin (-11%) despite a solid operating margin (14%) and strong free cash flow ($321 M). A massive debt‑to‑equity ratio (~877) and a net‑debt position far exceeding cash raise solvency concerns, yet the forward PE of 11 is well below the industry average of 17, implying relative undervaluation. Recent material news highlighted a $500 M preferred‑stock distribution with a 9% dividend and resumed share repurchases, underscoring management’s confidence in cash‑flow generation. These mixed signals suggest a short‑term upside potential but significant long‑term financial headwinds.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Bullish MACD signal with increasing volume
- Special 9% preferred dividend indicating cash‑flow confidence
- Forward PE advantage versus industry peers
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- High debt‑to‑equity ratio limiting financial flexibility
- Negative net profit margin despite solid operating cash flow
- Valuation still attractive but earnings volatility persists
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Significant leverage and exposure to multiple Latin American jurisdictions
- Flat revenue growth and earnings losses raising sustainability concerns
- Potential upside from fiber‑optic network expansion and market share gains
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-0.10%
Profit Margin-11.20%
P/E Ratio11.0
ROE-34.89%
ROA1.21%
Debt/Equity877.41
P/B Ratio2.9
Op. Cash Flow$823.5M
Free Cash Flow$321.4M
Industry P/E17.0
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI51.1
Support$7.09
Resistance$8.52
MA 20$7.82
MA 50$8.08
MA 200$7.96
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.61
Valuation
Target Price$11.90
Upside/Downside49.87%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Risk Assessment
Beta0.77
Volatility47.69%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.