LILA:NASDAQLiberty Latin America Ltd. Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-15 - not real-time
$8.11
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Liberty Latin America is trading just above its technical support of $7.65, with the 20‑day SMA ($8.23) sitting above both the 50‑day ($8.01) and 200‑day ($7.76) averages, signaling a bullish trend despite a bearish MACD histogram. Volume is declining, and the MACD line sits below its signal, suggesting short‑term momentum may be weakening, yet the overall trend direction remains bullish and the Fear/Greed Index is in the "Extreme Greed" zone, indicating strong market optimism.
Fundamentally, the company carries a very high debt‑to‑equity ratio (over 800) and currently reports negative operating and profit margins, but a positive EBITDA of $1.13 B and free cash flow of $206 M point to improving cash generation. Forward earnings are projected to turn positive ($0.72 EPS) and the forward P/E of ~11.3 is well below the industry average of ~18.9, implying the stock is undervalued. Recent earnings calls highlight the addition of 225,000 mobile postpaid subscribers and strategic moves into cloud and 5G, supporting a medium‑term growth narrative. The upside potential of roughly 47% versus downside risk of about 9% further reinforces a favorable risk‑reward profile.
Fundamentally, the company carries a very high debt‑to‑equity ratio (over 800) and currently reports negative operating and profit margins, but a positive EBITDA of $1.13 B and free cash flow of $206 M point to improving cash generation. Forward earnings are projected to turn positive ($0.72 EPS) and the forward P/E of ~11.3 is well below the industry average of ~18.9, implying the stock is undervalued. Recent earnings calls highlight the addition of 225,000 mobile postpaid subscribers and strategic moves into cloud and 5G, supporting a medium‑term growth narrative. The upside potential of roughly 47% versus downside risk of about 9% further reinforces a favorable risk‑reward profile.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price near technical support with bullish SMA alignment
- Decreasing volume and bearish MACD signal
- Positive subscriber additions but still negative margins
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Forward EPS turning positive and low forward P/E vs peers
- Momentum from mobile postpaid subscriber growth and cloud partnership
- Undervalued price relative to target median of $13
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Strategic 5G and AI initiatives driving future revenue expansion
- Improving cash flow and potential debt reduction over time
- Broad geographic footprint offering diversified growth opportunities
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth1.70%
Profit Margin-13.76%
P/E Ratio11.3
ROE-41.72%
ROA1.13%
Debt/Equity831.65
P/B Ratio2.9
Op. Cash Flow$805.9M
Free Cash Flow$206.5M
Industry P/E18.9
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI48.8
Support$7.65
Resistance$8.79
MA 20$8.23
MA 50$8.01
MA 200$7.76
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index88.64
Valuation
Target Price$11.90
Upside/Downside46.73%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Risk Assessment
Beta0.68
Volatility35.74%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.