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LILA:NASDAQLiberty Latin America Ltd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-17 - not real-time

$7.79

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Liberty Latin America (LILA) trades at $7.79, below its 20‑day (≈$7.84) and 50‑day (≈$7.98) simple moving averages, signaling a modest technical weakness. The RSI sits near 49, indicating a neutral momentum, while the MACD histogram is positive and the MACD signal is flagged bullish, suggesting a potential short‑term rebound. Fundamentally, the stock appears undervalued with a forward P/E of about 10.8 versus an industry average of 17.1 and an upside potential of roughly 53% per analyst estimates, yet it carries a staggering debt‑to‑equity ratio above 800 and a negative ROE of –35%, highlighting severe balance‑sheet risk. Recent news of a 9% preferred‑share special dividend provides a near‑term catalyst that could attract income‑seeking investors, but the lack of a sustainable regular dividend and the company’s ongoing losses temper enthusiasm.
Overall, the high 30‑day volatility (≈48%) and low beta (~0.5) point to a stock that can swing sharply on news while being less correlated with broader market moves; investors should weigh the attractive valuation and dividend event against the heavy leverage and earnings challenges when forming a view.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Special 9% preferred‑share dividend announcement
  • Bullish MACD signal despite price below SMAs
  • Significant upside potential in analyst price targets

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Heavy debt load and negative ROE
  • Improving forward earnings estimate (positive forward EPS)
  • Stable telecom sector demand in Latin America

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Unsustainable leverage and ongoing net losses
  • Lack of a regular dividend and reliance on one‑off preferred payout
  • Exposure to political and economic volatility across multiple Latin American markets

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-0.10%
Profit Margin-11.20%
P/E Ratio10.8
ROE-34.89%
ROA1.21%
Debt/Equity877.41
P/B Ratio2.9
Op. Cash Flow$823.5M
Free Cash Flow$321.4M
Industry P/E17.1

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI48.8
Support$7.26
Resistance$8.32
MA 20$7.84
MA 50$7.98
MA 200$7.96
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.13

Valuation

Target Price$11.90
Upside/Downside52.76%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue

Risk Assessment

Beta0.53
Volatility47.56%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskHigh
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.