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LHA:XETRDeutsche Lufthansa AG Analysis

Data as of 2026-07-09 - not real-time

€9.34

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Deutsche Lufthansa shares are trading around €9.34, just below the 20‑day SMA of €9.36 but comfortably above the 50‑day (€8.58) and 200‑day (€8.19) averages, indicating a short‑term pull‑back within a longer‑term uptrend. The RSI sits at 53, suggesting neutral momentum, while the MACD histogram is slightly negative, flagging a bearish signal on an otherwise bullish trend direction. Volatility over the past 30 days is high at roughly 30% and beta is low at 0.22, pointing to a stock that moves sharply but is less correlated with broader market swings. Fundamental metrics are striking: the forward P/E is about 6.4 versus an industry average of 31, and the price‑to‑book is under 1, signaling deep value. A dividend yield of 3.37% with a modest payout ratio of 23% makes the cash return attractive, and the DCF model values the company near €41, implying a substantial valuation gap. Recent earnings released in the news show record Q1 revenue of €8.7 bn (+8% YoY) and an improvement in adjusted EBIT, reinforcing the upside narrative. Combined with a solid cash position of €7.7 bn and a support level near €7.92, the stock appears positioned for a rebound, though the current market sentiment is colored by sector‑wide travel demand uncertainties.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price marginally below 20‑day SMA indicating a possible short‑term correction
  • Bullish longer‑term trend supported by SMA50 and SMA200
  • Attractive dividend yield with low payout ratio

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Significant valuation gap (DCF fair value far above current price)
  • Strong earnings momentum and improving EBIT
  • Low valuation multiples relative to industry peers

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained cash generation and diversified business segments (Passenger, Logistics, MRO)
  • Resilient dividend policy supporting total return
  • Long‑term recovery in global travel demand and strategic positioning in Europe

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth7.60%
Profit Margin3.87%
P/E Ratio7.2
ROE13.72%
ROA2.06%
Debt/Equity105.02
P/B Ratio0.9
Op. Cash Flow€4.4B
Free Cash Flow€-2176499968
Industry P/E31.0

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI53.1
Support€7.92
Resistance€10.22
MA 20€9.36
MA 50€8.58
MA 200€8.19
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.75

Valuation

Fair Value€41.29
Target Price€9.71
Upside/Downside4.01%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield3.37%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.22
Volatility29.79%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.