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LEN:NYSELennar Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-21 - not real-time

$87.31

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Technical outlook: LEN is trading below its 20‑day and 50‑day simple moving averages and well under the 200‑day SMA, signaling a bearish long‑term trend. The RSI hovers around the midpoint, while the MACD histogram is negative, confirming bearish momentum. Volume is rising, which adds weight to the downtrend.
Fundamental backdrop: The company posted a notable revenue decline year‑over‑year and margins remain thin, yet it maintains a low price‑to‑book ratio, a modest P/E, and a dividend yield above 2% with a comfortable payout ratio. Recent commentary highlights a strategic shift to a “land‑light” model that introduces new recurring fees, raising questions about future cash‑flow visibility. Analyst consensus is neutral (hold) and an underperform rating has been maintained, reflecting the mixed picture of valuation versus execution risk.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price below short‑term moving averages
  • Bearish MACD signal with increasing volume
  • Dividend provides downside cushion

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Valuation near fair value relative to book and cash
  • Potential margin improvement from land‑light strategy
  • Stable dividend yield despite earnings volatility

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Long‑term housing demand supports fundamental upside
  • Undervalued price‑to‑book and strong cash position
  • Strategic shift to institutional land banking may enhance resilience

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-13.30%
Profit Margin5.39%
P/E Ratio12.6
ROE8.08%
ROA4.30%
Debt/Equity24.99
P/B Ratio1.0
Op. Cash Flow$72.4M
Free Cash Flow$3.4B

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI48.2
Support$81.18
Resistance$95.48
MA 20$87.90
MA 50$89.80
MA 200$113.23
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.29

Valuation

Fair Value$193.54
Target Price$91.50
Upside/Downside4.80%
GradeFair
TypeValue
Dividend Yield2.29%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.95
Volatility37.16%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.