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LAD:NYSELithia Motors, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-20 - not real-time

$257.09

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Lithia Motors (LAD) is trading at $257.09, well below its 20‑day SMA of $279.55 and 50‑day SMA of $268.40, indicating short‑term weakness, while the RSI of 35.6 suggests the stock is approaching oversold territory. The recent Q1 2026 earnings beat expectations, delivering a non‑GAAP profit of $7.34 per share, a 7% upside to consensus, and revenue grew 1% year‑over‑year to $9.27 billion, providing a fresh catalyst. Valuation metrics are compelling: a trailing PE of 8.97, forward PE of 6.33, price‑to‑book of 0.92 and an upside potential of roughly 44% based on analyst targets. Dividend sustainability looks strong with a modest 0.89% yield and a payout ratio under 8%, though the balance sheet is leveraged (debt‑to‑equity ~252). The stock sits in a high‑beta, consumer‑cyclical sector, experiencing 34.8% 30‑day volatility, which amplifies downside risk if the auto market softens. Overall, the fundamentals and valuation favor a longer‑run re‑rating, but the technical picture remains bearish in the near term.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price hovering just above the $255 support level
  • Bearish MACD histogram and signal line
  • RSI near oversold but no clear breakout

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Significant valuation upside (~44% to median target $376)
  • Earnings beat and modest revenue growth
  • Low payout ratio supporting dividend sustainability

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Attractive valuation multiples (PE, P/B, price‑to‑sales)
  • High leverage (debt‑to‑equity >250) poses balance‑sheet risk
  • Cyclical exposure to auto demand and consumer confidence

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth1.00%
Profit Margin1.88%
P/E Ratio9.0
ROE10.87%
ROA3.95%
Debt/Equity251.65
P/B Ratio0.9
Op. Cash Flow$-73800000
Free Cash Flow$496.4M

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI35.6
Support$255.00
Resistance$304.80
MA 20$279.55
MA 50$268.40
MA 200$305.05
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index89.18

Valuation

Target Price$371.73
Upside/Downside44.59%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield0.89%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.10
Volatility34.83%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.