LAD:NYSELithia Motors, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-20 - not real-time
$257.09
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Lithia Motors (LAD) is trading at $257.09, well below its 20‑day SMA of $279.55 and 50‑day SMA of $268.40, indicating short‑term weakness, while the RSI of 35.6 suggests the stock is approaching oversold territory. The recent Q1 2026 earnings beat expectations, delivering a non‑GAAP profit of $7.34 per share, a 7% upside to consensus, and revenue grew 1% year‑over‑year to $9.27 billion, providing a fresh catalyst. Valuation metrics are compelling: a trailing PE of 8.97, forward PE of 6.33, price‑to‑book of 0.92 and an upside potential of roughly 44% based on analyst targets. Dividend sustainability looks strong with a modest 0.89% yield and a payout ratio under 8%, though the balance sheet is leveraged (debt‑to‑equity ~252). The stock sits in a high‑beta, consumer‑cyclical sector, experiencing 34.8% 30‑day volatility, which amplifies downside risk if the auto market softens. Overall, the fundamentals and valuation favor a longer‑run re‑rating, but the technical picture remains bearish in the near term.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price hovering just above the $255 support level
- Bearish MACD histogram and signal line
- RSI near oversold but no clear breakout
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Significant valuation upside (~44% to median target $376)
- Earnings beat and modest revenue growth
- Low payout ratio supporting dividend sustainability
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Attractive valuation multiples (PE, P/B, price‑to‑sales)
- High leverage (debt‑to‑equity >250) poses balance‑sheet risk
- Cyclical exposure to auto demand and consumer confidence
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth1.00%
Profit Margin1.88%
P/E Ratio9.0
ROE10.87%
ROA3.95%
Debt/Equity251.65
P/B Ratio0.9
Op. Cash Flow$-73800000
Free Cash Flow$496.4M
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI35.6
Support$255.00
Resistance$304.80
MA 20$279.55
MA 50$268.40
MA 200$305.05
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index89.18
Valuation
Target Price$371.73
Upside/Downside44.59%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield0.89%
Risk Assessment
Beta1.10
Volatility34.83%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.