KYGA:LSEKerry Group Plc Class A Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-13 - not real-time
€69.80
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Kerry Group (KYGA.L) is trading at €69.8, well below its 20‑day SMA of €71.88 and 50‑day SMA of €73.88, and markedly above its DCF‑derived fair value of €11.66. The technical suite is bearish – RSI sits at 43, MACD shows a bearish divergence, and volume is on a decreasing trend, suggesting limited short‑term momentum. Recent earnings call notes solid Q4 results with revenue around €6.8 bn, yet the stock slipped, reflecting market skepticism despite stable profitability and a 2.02% dividend yield.
Fundamentally, the company posts a healthy operating margin of 15%, a payout ratio of ~33%, and free cash flow coverage, supporting dividend sustainability. However, the valuation gap (price over fair value by ~500%) and a high 30‑day volatility of 41.8% underscore significant downside risk, while the near‑zero beta signals limited systematic market correlation.
Fundamentally, the company posts a healthy operating margin of 15%, a payout ratio of ~33%, and free cash flow coverage, supporting dividend sustainability. However, the valuation gap (price over fair value by ~500%) and a high 30‑day volatility of 41.8% underscore significant downside risk, while the near‑zero beta signals limited systematic market correlation.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 4/10
Key Factors
- Bearish technical positioning below short‑term moving averages
- Proximity to immediate support at €68.75
- High short‑term volatility limiting upside
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Stable earnings and cash‑flow generation
- Sustainable dividend payout
- Persistent valuation disconnect from intrinsic fair value
Long Term
> 3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Severe overvaluation relative to DCF fair value
- Bearish trend direction and negative MACD momentum
- Limited upside potential given large valuation gap
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Profit Margin9.75%
P/E Ratio17.5
ROE10.59%
ROA4.85%
Debt/Equity43.56
P/B Ratio1.9
Op. Cash Flow€755.5M
Free Cash Flow€302.9M
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI43.3
Support€68.75
Resistance€79.60
MA 20€71.88
MA 50€73.88
MA 200€80.16
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88
Valuation
Fair Value€11.67
Target Price€96.40
Upside/Downside38.11%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield2.02%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.00
Volatility41.85%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.