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KYGA:LSEKerry Group Plc Class A Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-13 - not real-time

€69.80

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Kerry Group (KYGA.L) is trading at €69.8, well below its 20‑day SMA of €71.88 and 50‑day SMA of €73.88, and markedly above its DCF‑derived fair value of €11.66. The technical suite is bearish – RSI sits at 43, MACD shows a bearish divergence, and volume is on a decreasing trend, suggesting limited short‑term momentum. Recent earnings call notes solid Q4 results with revenue around €6.8 bn, yet the stock slipped, reflecting market skepticism despite stable profitability and a 2.02% dividend yield.
Fundamentally, the company posts a healthy operating margin of 15%, a payout ratio of ~33%, and free cash flow coverage, supporting dividend sustainability. However, the valuation gap (price over fair value by ~500%) and a high 30‑day volatility of 41.8% underscore significant downside risk, while the near‑zero beta signals limited systematic market correlation.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 4/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish technical positioning below short‑term moving averages
  • Proximity to immediate support at €68.75
  • High short‑term volatility limiting upside

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Stable earnings and cash‑flow generation
  • Sustainable dividend payout
  • Persistent valuation disconnect from intrinsic fair value

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Severe overvaluation relative to DCF fair value
  • Bearish trend direction and negative MACD momentum
  • Limited upside potential given large valuation gap

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Profit Margin9.75%
P/E Ratio17.5
ROE10.59%
ROA4.85%
Debt/Equity43.56
P/B Ratio1.9
Op. Cash Flow€755.5M
Free Cash Flow€302.9M

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI43.3
Support€68.75
Resistance€79.60
MA 20€71.88
MA 50€73.88
MA 200€80.16
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88

Valuation

Fair Value€11.67
Target Price€96.40
Upside/Downside38.11%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield2.02%

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.00
Volatility41.85%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.