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KSS:NYSEKohl's Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-13 - not real-time

$13.46

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Kohl's (KSS) is trading at $13.46, comfortably above its short‑term support of $11.92 but below the $14.02 resistance band, indicating limited upside in the immediate term. The stock sits under its 20‑day SMA (12.88) and well under the 50‑day (15.36) and 200‑day (16.06) averages, a classic bearish alignment, while the RSI at 47 suggests momentum is neutral and the MACD histogram (+0.28) hints at a tentative bullish signal that has not yet translated into price strength. Volume trends are decreasing and 30‑day volatility is high at 57%, compounded by a beta near 2.0, underscoring heightened market risk for this consumer‑cyclical name.
Fundamentally, the company appears deeply discounted: a trailing PE of 5.66, PB of 0.37 and price‑to‑sales of 0.10 place it far below peers, and the DCF‑derived fair value of $41.35 suggests substantial upside. Despite a 4.2% revenue contraction and a hefty debt‑to‑equity ratio of 164%, Kohl's generated positive operating cash flow and free cash flow, and its 3.77% dividend yield is supported by a modest 21% payout ratio, indicating dividend sustainability. Recent earnings beat (EPS $1.07 vs. $0.86 expected) provides a short‑term catalyst, but comparable sales still fell 2.8% and weather‑related headwinds linger, keeping the medium‑ to long‑term outlook cautious yet potentially rewarding for value‑focused investors.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Price near support but below key moving averages
  • Recent earnings beat provides temporary cushion
  • High volatility and decreasing volume raise short‑term uncertainty

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Deep valuation discount relative to DCF fair value
  • Sustainable dividend yield with low payout ratio
  • Potential recovery in consumer spending and comparable sales

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Fundamental metrics (PE, PB, price‑to‑sales) suggest strong value proposition
  • Free cash flow generation can eventually deleverage the balance sheet
  • Long‑term upside potential if the company stabilizes revenue trends and leverages omnichannel strategy

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-4.20%
Profit Margin1.75%
P/E Ratio5.7
ROE6.93%
ROA2.37%
Debt/Equity163.78
P/B Ratio0.4
Op. Cash Flow$1.4B
Free Cash Flow$784.8M

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI47.1
Support$11.92
Resistance$14.02
MA 20$12.88
MA 50$15.36
MA 200$16.06
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index87.29

Valuation

Fair Value$41.35
Target Price$17.46
Upside/Downside29.71%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.77%

Risk Assessment

Beta2.00
Volatility57.03%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.