KSS:NYSEKohl's Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-13 - not real-time
$13.46
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Kohl's (KSS) is trading at $13.46, comfortably above its short‑term support of $11.92 but below the $14.02 resistance band, indicating limited upside in the immediate term. The stock sits under its 20‑day SMA (12.88) and well under the 50‑day (15.36) and 200‑day (16.06) averages, a classic bearish alignment, while the RSI at 47 suggests momentum is neutral and the MACD histogram (+0.28) hints at a tentative bullish signal that has not yet translated into price strength. Volume trends are decreasing and 30‑day volatility is high at 57%, compounded by a beta near 2.0, underscoring heightened market risk for this consumer‑cyclical name.
Fundamentally, the company appears deeply discounted: a trailing PE of 5.66, PB of 0.37 and price‑to‑sales of 0.10 place it far below peers, and the DCF‑derived fair value of $41.35 suggests substantial upside. Despite a 4.2% revenue contraction and a hefty debt‑to‑equity ratio of 164%, Kohl's generated positive operating cash flow and free cash flow, and its 3.77% dividend yield is supported by a modest 21% payout ratio, indicating dividend sustainability. Recent earnings beat (EPS $1.07 vs. $0.86 expected) provides a short‑term catalyst, but comparable sales still fell 2.8% and weather‑related headwinds linger, keeping the medium‑ to long‑term outlook cautious yet potentially rewarding for value‑focused investors.
Fundamentally, the company appears deeply discounted: a trailing PE of 5.66, PB of 0.37 and price‑to‑sales of 0.10 place it far below peers, and the DCF‑derived fair value of $41.35 suggests substantial upside. Despite a 4.2% revenue contraction and a hefty debt‑to‑equity ratio of 164%, Kohl's generated positive operating cash flow and free cash flow, and its 3.77% dividend yield is supported by a modest 21% payout ratio, indicating dividend sustainability. Recent earnings beat (EPS $1.07 vs. $0.86 expected) provides a short‑term catalyst, but comparable sales still fell 2.8% and weather‑related headwinds linger, keeping the medium‑ to long‑term outlook cautious yet potentially rewarding for value‑focused investors.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Price near support but below key moving averages
- Recent earnings beat provides temporary cushion
- High volatility and decreasing volume raise short‑term uncertainty
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Deep valuation discount relative to DCF fair value
- Sustainable dividend yield with low payout ratio
- Potential recovery in consumer spending and comparable sales
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Fundamental metrics (PE, PB, price‑to‑sales) suggest strong value proposition
- Free cash flow generation can eventually deleverage the balance sheet
- Long‑term upside potential if the company stabilizes revenue trends and leverages omnichannel strategy
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-4.20%
Profit Margin1.75%
P/E Ratio5.7
ROE6.93%
ROA2.37%
Debt/Equity163.78
P/B Ratio0.4
Op. Cash Flow$1.4B
Free Cash Flow$784.8M
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI47.1
Support$11.92
Resistance$14.02
MA 20$12.88
MA 50$15.36
MA 200$16.06
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index87.29
Valuation
Fair Value$41.35
Target Price$17.46
Upside/Downside29.71%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.77%
Risk Assessment
Beta2.00
Volatility57.03%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.