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KSS:NYSEKohl's Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-21 - not real-time

$11.89

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Kohl's trades well below its discounted cash‑flow estimate, offering a substantial margin of safety and a dividend yield that tops 4% while paying out only about one‑fifth of earnings. Technical signals are mixed: the 20‑day and 50‑day moving averages are virtually flat, the MACD is bearish, and the RSI sits in the lower‑mid range, suggesting limited upside in the near term but also no immediate downside pressure.
The company faces a challenging operating backdrop with negative revenue growth and modest profitability, yet it generates solid operating cash flow, maintains a strong balance sheet with ample cash, and benefits from a potential tariff refund that could further improve liquidity. These fundamentals, combined with a low price‑to‑book and price‑to‑sales ratio, point to a value‑oriented investment thesis, though the high beta and volatility underscore the need for careful risk management.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Price near a clear support level
  • Attractive dividend yield with low payout ratio
  • Significant undervaluation relative to DCF

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Fundamental undervaluation persists
  • Ongoing revenue decline and modest profit margins
  • Improving cash flow and potential tariff refund

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • DCF suggests a price target well above current levels
  • Sustainable dividend supports total return
  • Long‑term structural turnaround opportunities in omnichannel retail

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-4.20%
Profit Margin1.75%
P/E Ratio5.0
ROE6.93%
ROA2.37%
Debt/Equity163.78
P/B Ratio0.3
Op. Cash Flow$1.4B
Free Cash Flow$784.8M

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI35.4
Support$11.38
Resistance$15.90
MA 20$13.42
MA 50$13.41
MA 200$16.54
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.52

Valuation

Fair Value$36.66
Target Price$16.96
Upside/Downside42.63%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield4.10%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.99
Volatility56.69%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.