KO:NYSECoca-Cola Company (The) Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-19 - not real-time
$81.98
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
The Coca‑Cola stock is trading at $81.98, essentially at its 52‑week high of $82.66 and just above the 20‑day SMA of $78.68, indicating strong recent momentum. Technical indicators are mixed: the MACD line sits above its signal (bullish) and the histogram is positive, but the 14‑day RSI of 71.9 signals the stock is overbought and vulnerable to a short‑term pullback. The price is hugging the identified resistance level of $82.66 while a solid support zone sits near $74.55, and the 30‑day volatility of 18 % suggests price swings can be sizable. The beta of –0.07 (computed) and a quoted beta of 0.36 point to low market‑directional risk, reinforcing the defensive nature of the consumer‑staples sector.
Fundamentally, Coca‑Cola posted 12 % revenue growth YoY, with robust gross (61.7 %) and operating margins (35 %). Return on equity is an impressive 43 % and free cash flow exceeds $3.1 bn, underpinning a 2.61 % dividend yield and a payout ratio of roughly 65 %. However, the DCF‑derived fair value of $8.48 per share and a modest upside of 4.6 % signal that the market may be pricing the stock at a premium. The balance sheet shows high leverage (debt‑to‑equity ≈125 %) but ample cash reserves, while the recent launch of Fresca Hard expands the ready‑to‑drink portfolio, offering an additional growth catalyst.
Fundamentally, Coca‑Cola posted 12 % revenue growth YoY, with robust gross (61.7 %) and operating margins (35 %). Return on equity is an impressive 43 % and free cash flow exceeds $3.1 bn, underpinning a 2.61 % dividend yield and a payout ratio of roughly 65 %. However, the DCF‑derived fair value of $8.48 per share and a modest upside of 4.6 % signal that the market may be pricing the stock at a premium. The balance sheet shows high leverage (debt‑to‑equity ≈125 %) but ample cash reserves, while the recent launch of Fresca Hard expands the ready‑to‑drink portfolio, offering an additional growth catalyst.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- RSI in overbought territory
- Price near 52‑week high and resistance
- High valuation relative to DCF
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Consistent revenue growth and strong margins
- New product launch (Fresca Hard) expanding portfolio
- Defensive sector with stable dividend
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Durable brand moat and global distribution network
- Sustainable dividend yield and cash‑flow generation
- Long‑term defensive positioning despite leverage
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth12.10%
Profit Margin27.80%
P/E Ratio25.8
ROE43.37%
ROA9.51%
Debt/Equity124.94
P/B Ratio10.5
Op. Cash Flow$14.6B
Free Cash Flow$3.1B
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI71.9
Support$74.55
Resistance$82.66
MA 20$78.68
MA 50$77.22
MA 200$72.58
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index89.11
Valuation
Fair Value$8.48
Target Price$85.76
Upside/Downside4.61%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.61%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.07
Volatility18.01%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.