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KIO:JSEKumba Iron Ore Limited Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-24 - not real-time

ZAC 30,226.00

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Kumba Iron Ore is currently trading below its short‑term moving averages, with the price under the 20‑day and 50‑day SMA, and a bearish MACD histogram confirming downward momentum. The RSI sits in the lower‑mid range, hinting at near‑oversold conditions that could set the stage for a short‑term bounce. Fundamentally, the company boasts a low PE multiple, a very high dividend yield, strong gross and operating margins, and robust free cash flow that comfortably covers its dividend payout, while its debt‑to‑equity ratio remains modest.
The recent appointment of an independent non‑executive director to the audit committee adds governance depth, but the broader market sentiment is bearish, reflected in decreasing volume and a 30‑day volatility that is elevated. Given the disparity between the market price and the discounted cash‑flow fair value, the stock appears materially undervalued, positioning it as a potential value play for investors with a longer horizon.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • price below short‑term moving averages
  • bearish MACD and decreasing volume
  • high dividend yield offering near‑term income

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • significant undervaluation relative to DCF fair value
  • strong cash generation and low leverage
  • potential price recovery as technical indicators stabilize

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • sustainable dividend supported by free cash flow
  • stable fundamentals with solid margins and low debt
  • commodity exposure offering upside in a rising iron‑ore price environment

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth8.60%
Profit Margin20.85%
P/E Ratio6.7
ROE27.11%
ROA15.51%
Debt/Equity0.28
P/B Ratio1.8
Op. Cash FlowZAC27.1B
Free Cash FlowZAC17.8B

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI36.2
SupportZAC 30,045.00
ResistanceZAC 33,632.00
MA 20ZAC 31,665.00
MA 50ZAC 31,824.94
MA 200ZAC 33,172.66
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.61

Valuation

Fair ValueZAC 108,800.22
Target PriceZAC 30,728.57
Upside/Downside1.66%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield10.21%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.46
Volatility25.45%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.