JSMR:IDXPT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk Class B Analysis

JSMR trades at IDR 2,720, well below its 20‑day SMA of 2,862 and the 50‑day SMA of 3,015, signaling a short‑term bearish price bias, yet the stock boasts an eye‑popping PE of 5.6 versus an industry average of 31.4 and a PB of 0.53, indicating deep value. Dividend yield sits at 5.87% with a modest 32% payout ratio, supported by strong operating cash flow of IDR 6.26T, suggesting the dividend is sustainable despite a negative free cash flow of –IDR 6.94T. Recent news confirms a dividend payout of IDR 1.1T (31% of 2025 profit) and a 20% Q1‑2026 capex execution to accelerate five new toll‑road projects, underscoring continued investment and shareholder returns. Analyst consensus is a strong‑buy with a median target of IDR 4,590, implying a potential upside of roughly 65%.
Technical indicators are mixed: RSI at 37 points to oversold conditions, while MACD remains bearish and price hovers just above the identified support of IDR 2,600. The company carries a very high debt‑to‑equity ratio of 118× and a negative free cash flow, which raises financial risk, but its low beta (~0.15‑0.28) and rising volume suggest limited market volatility. The upcoming long‑holiday season may boost traffic short‑term, yet revenue growth is currently negative at –8.1%, highlighting the need for operational turnaround.